On this site I provide information on my background, research, and few random thoughts. I am an economist at Microsoft Research in New York City. I have a Ph.D. in applied economics from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. My primary body of work is on forecasting, and understanding public interest and sentiment. Related work examines how the public absorbs information. I write extensively, in both the academic and popular press, on polling, prediction markets, social media and online data, and predictions of upcoming events; most of my popular work has focused on predicting elections, an economist take on public policy, and choices in news generation and consumption. After joining Microsoft in 2012 I have been building prediction and sentiment models, and organizing novel/experimental polling and prediction games; this work has been utilized by Bing, MSN, Cortana, and Xbox. And, I correctly predicted 50 of 51 Electoral College outcomes in February of 2012 (wish I trusted my model or polling more in 2016), average of 20 of 24 Oscars from 2013-6, and 15 of 15 knockout games in the 2014 World Cup.
I am also a fellow at the Applied Statistics Center at Columbia and the Penn Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies.