Popular Writing

This is a selection of my popular writing. Please go to PredictWise and Huffington Post to see all of my latest articles and the full set of articles:

Articles from Spring and Summer 2013:
PredictWise’s Election Performance
Tuesday, June 11, 2013, PredictWise
Eurovision 2013
Saturday, May 18, 2013, PredictWise

Articles from January through March 2013:
Judging the Oscar Predictions
Wednesday, March 6, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
Relevant, real-time, accurate, and scalable: 2013 Oscar predictions are a win for predictive science
Monday, February 25, 2013, PredictWise
Oscar Predictions on the Move!
Sunday, February 24, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
My Confident Predictions for the Oscars
Friday, February 22, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
How Many Oscars Will Lincoln Win? Not Too Many!
Tuesday, February 8, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
What Is Predictive of the Oscars?
Tuesday, February 4, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
A Quick Peak at the Other 18 Oscar Categories
Tuesday, January 30, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
Argo Versus Lincoln
Tuesday, January 29, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
Obama Versus Lincoln and Argo
Thursday, January 17, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
The Golden Globes Are All About Argo, But Oscars Still Leaning Lincoln
Monday, January 14, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
Handicapping the Oscars, It Is All About Lincoln
Thursday, January 10, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise

Articles from November 2012:
Government goes after prediction markets and research
Tuesday, November 27, 2012, Huffington Post and PredictWise
Why The Signal won the election forecasting game
Tuesday, November 13, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Signal forecast goes 50 for 50 with Florida outstanding
Wednesday, November 7, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Democrats will control 53-54 seats in the Senate, not including Maine independent Angus King
Wednesday, November 7, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Election Night Scoreboards
Tuesday, November 6, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
The Signal guide to watching election results
Tuesday, November 6, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Obama still poised to win 303 electoral votes on Tuesday
Monday, November 5, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Romney camp hoping for a systematic polling bias in Ohio
Sunday, November 4, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
YouGov/Xbox Poll Respondents Expect Obama Victory in Ohio (and the election)
Friday, November 2, 2012, Huffington Post and PredictWise
All eyes on—where else?—Ohio
Thursday, November 1, 2012, Yahoo! Signal

Articles from October 2012:
National polls are meaningless at this stage in the election
Tuesday, October 30, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Happy first birthday, 2012 presidential campaign
Monday, October 29, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Xbox/YouGov Panel on Romney’s First Debate Victory & Obama’s Subsequent Debate Rebound
Monday, October 29, 2012, Huffington Post and PredictWise
Understanding How Polls Affect Voters
Friday, October 26, 2012, Huffington Post and PredictWise
Senate race in Indiana now leaning Democratic after Mourdock’s abortion comment
Thursday, October 25, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
As goes February, so goes the nation
Wednesday, October 24, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
The election is over! (Results embargoed two weeks)
Tuesday, October 23, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Snapshots and Movies: Most Polls Are Snapshots, but the Xbox/YouGov Panel Shows Voters in Motion
Monday, October 22, 2012, Huffington Post and PredictWise
Romney could win the popular vote and lose the election
Monday, October 22, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Obama still on defense
Wednesday, October 17, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Xbox Live/YouGov Polling
Monday, October 15, 2012, Huffington Post and PredictWise
The Senate is the Democrats’ to lose as five more states shift
Monday, October 15, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Who won the vice presidential debate? Doesn’t matter.
Friday, October 12, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Romney chips away at Obama’s lead, but electoral math still favors president
Wednesday, October 10, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Debates don’t move polls. Debate winners do.
Thursday, October 4, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Academics love models, but their window of opportunity has passed
Wednesday, October 3, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Even before debates, electoral map appears largely written in stone
Monday, October 1, 2012, Yahoo! Signal

Articles from September 2012:
Why Ohio Is So Pivotal for Romney
Tuesday, September 25, 2012, Huffington Post and PredictWise
The downside of outside spending: Candidates are hard to shop for
Tuesday, September 25, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Introducing WiseQ Game – Election 2012
Monday, September 24, 2012, PredictWise
Democrats likely to retain Senate as four critical races shift in their favor
Monday, September 24, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Can Romney still win? Of course—just not the way things are going
Thursday, September 20, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Hidden video moves Obama 2.5% closer to reelection
Wednesday, September 19, 2012, PredictWise
Search data shows wildly divergent narratives on right and left
Tuesday, September 18, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Obama Reaches His Highest Likelihood of Reelection
Monday, September 17, 2012, Huffington Post and PredictWise
Romney’s chief opponent is not Obama. It’s time.
Wednesday, September 12, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Markets sour on both Romney and Obama speeches, but conventions still boost Democrats
Friday, September 7, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Trust me, a primary reminder
Wednesday, September 5, 2012, PredictWise
Romney catches up in polls with convention bounce, but now it’s Obama’s turn
Wednesday, September 5, 2012, Yahoo! Signal

Articles from August 2012:
Republican convention fails to move markets, but expect a bounce in polls (and ignore it, for now)
Friday, August 31, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Three States Hold the Keys to the Election
Wednesday, August 29, 2012, Huffington Post and PredictWise
Christie’s keynote address comes with awkward political calculus: An economist’s view
Tuesday, August 28, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
All signs point to a Romney victory except one (a very big one)
Thursday, August 23, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Missouri GOP senate candidate drops heavily in prediction today due to rape comments
Monday, August 20, 2012, PredictWise
Akin’s ‘Macaca moment’ could flip the Senate race
Monday, August 20, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Romney’s path to victory goes through Florida, Ohio and Virginia
Friday, August 17, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
With dozens of scenarios, control of the Senate is a toss-up
Monday, August 13, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Ryan pick damages market odds of Romney victory in Florida
Saturday, August 11, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Prediction markets leaning toward safe choice for Romney’s running mate
Thursday August 9, 2012, Yahoo! Signal

Selected Articles from October 2011 to July 2012:
The Signal prediction: Obama maintains fragile hold on 303 electoral votes in November
Wednesday, July 18, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
From now to the election, Obama’s economic record is set in stone
Friday, July 6, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Pay no attention to the pollster behind the curtain
Wednesday, May 9, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Is the New Jersey tunnel project too big to succeed? The economist’s view.
Friday, April 20, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Election prediction scorecard: Markets got 21 of 26 forecasts correct in first half of primary
Monday, March 26, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
The imaginary connection between tax rates and GDP
Monday, March 12, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
As go the prediction markets, so goes Ohio
Thursday, March 8, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Markets heavily favor The Artist for top Oscar laurels
Thursday, February 23, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Obama poised to win 2012 election with 303 electoral votes: The Signal Forecast
Thursday, February 16, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
The Twitter users who drove the furor over Komen and Planned Parenthood
Saturday, February 4, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
As Gingrich’s fate rises, so does Obama’s
Tuesday, January 24, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
The real reason no one impersonates dead voters: High risk, little benefit
Friday, January 20, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Santorum does not have a “Google Problem.” He has a civil rights problem.
Friday, January 6, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Romney leads prediction markets even as poll numbers lag
Wednesday, December 28, 2011, Yahoo! Signal
Romney is still out front in the prediction markets
Wednesday, December 7, 2011, Yahoo! Signal
Payroll tax debate has 2012 implications
Thursday, December 1, 2011, Yahoo! Signal
A bad bet? Freddie and Newt make markets cautious
Wednesday, November 16, 2011, Yahoo! Signal
T-minus 363 days to election 2012: Welcome to The Signal!
Monday, November 7, 2011, Yahoo! Signal

Articles from 2008:
Market Watcher’s Guide to Election Day with Justin Wolfers
Wall Street Journal Online, November 4, 2008.
- Election-eve assessment of the key political trends.

Market Manipulation Muddies Election Outlook with Justin Wolfers
Wall Street Journal Online, October 2, 2008.
- Assesses the extent to which prediction market prices may have been distorted by market manipulation.

Clinton’s Win Doesn’t Move Political Markets with Justin Wolfers
Wall Street Journal Online, April 23, 2008.
- Interprets the implications of the Democratic Pennsylvania primary.  Our verdict: It’s a draw.