8. Understanding Market Functionality and Trading Success
With James Schmitz
7. A Sharp Test of the Portability of Expertise
with Etan Green and Justin Rao
Management Science. 2019.
6. Manipulation in conditional decision markets
With Florian Teschner and Henner Gimpel
Group Decision and Negotiation. 2017. Vol. 26, No. 5, pp. 953-971.
5. Trading Strategies and Market Microstructure: Evidence from a Prediction Market
With Rajiv Sethi
Journal of Prediction Markets. 2016. Vol. 10, No. 1.
4. Lay understanding of probability distributions
With Daniel G. Goldstein
Judgment and Decision Making. 2014. Vol. 9, No. 1, pp. 1–14.
3. A comparison of forecasting methods: fundamentals, polling, prediction markets, and experts
With Deepak Pathak and Miroslav Dudik
The Journal of Prediction Markets. 2015. Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 1-31.
2. The Extent of Price Misalignment in Prediction Markets
With David Pennock
Algorithmic Finance. 2014. Vol. 3, pp. 3-20.
1. Simplifying Market Access: a New Confidence-Based Interface
With Florian Teschner
The Journal of Prediction Markets. 2012. Vol. 6, No. 3, pp. 27-41.
Circulated Working Papers
1. A new way to think about confidence ranges Email for Paper
With Daniel G. Goldstein and Florian Teschner
2. Irrational Expectations Email for Paper
With Etan Green and Justin Rao
3. Parallax and Tax
With Etan Green and Haksoo Lee, This Draft: May 15, 2019
4. Log-time Prediction Markets for Interval Securities
With Miro Dudik, David Pennock, Xintong Wang, This Draft: January, 2019
5. An Expressive and Liquid Financial Options Market via Linear Programming and
Automated Market Making
With David Pennock, Xintong Wang, This Draft: January, 2019
Papers in “File Drawer”
2. Selection bias in documenting online conversations
With Ran He. This Draft: March 20, 2016.
1. Expectations: Point-Estimates, Probability Distributions, and Forecasts
This Draft: September 20, 2012.
18. One Person, One Vote: Estimating the Prevalence of Double Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections
with Sharad Goel, Marc Meredith, Michael Morse, and Houshmand Shirani-Mehr. This Draft: January 4, 2017.
17. President Trump Stress Disorder: Partisanship, Ethnicity, and Expressive Reporting of Mental Distress after the 2016 Election
with Masha Krupenkin, Shawndra Hill, and Elad Yom-Tov
Sage Open. 2019. Vol. 9, No. 1.
16. Disentangling Total Error, Bias, and Variance in Election Polls
with Houshmand Shirani-Mehr, Sharad Goel, and Andrew Gelman.
Journal of the American Statistical Association (JASA). 2018. Vol. 113, No. 522, pp 607-614.
15. Using big data and algorithms to determine the effect of geographically targeted advertising on vote intention: Evidence form the 2012 US presidential election
with Tobias Konitzer, Shawndra Hill, and Kenneth Wilbur.
Political Communications. 2018. Vol. 36, No. 1, pp. 1-16.
14. Economic Expectations, Voting, and Economic Decisions around Elections
With Gur Huberman, Tobias Konitzer, Masha Krupenkin, and Shawndra Hill.
AEA Papers and Procceedings. 2018. Vol. 108, pp. 597-602.
13. High-Frequency Polling with Non-Representative Data
With Andrew Gelman, Sharad Goel, and Wei Wang.
Political Communication in Real Time. 2017.
12. Mobile as Survey Mode
With Stephanie Eckman and Tobias Konitzer.
Proceedings of the Survey Research Methods Section, ASA. 2016.
11. Online and social media data as an imperfect continuous panel survey
With Fernando Diaz, Michael Gamon, Jake Hofman, and Emre Kiciman.
PlosOne. 2016. 10.1371/journal.pone.0145406.
10. The Mythical Swing Voter
With Andrew Gelman, Sharad Goel, and Doug Rivers
Quarterly Journal of Political Science. 2016. Vol. 11, No. 1, pp 103-130.
9. Forecasting elections with non-representative polls
With Wei Wang, Andrew Gelman, and Sharad Goel
International Journal of Forecasting. 2015. Vol. 31, pp. 980-991.
8. Combining forecasts for elections: Accurate, relevant, and timely
International Journal of Forecasting. 2015. Vol. 31, pp. 952-964.
7. Xbox Polling and the Future of Election Prediction
Harvard Business Review. September 30, 2014 *Not Peer-Reviewed, but regularly cited*
6. Are Polls and Probabilities Self-Fulfilling Prophecies?
With Neil Malhotra
Research and Politics. 2014. July-September, pp. 1-10.
5. Fundamental models for forecasting elections at the state level
With Patrick Hummel
Electoral Studies. 2014. Vol. 35, pp. 123-139.
4. A Combinatorial Prediction Market for the U.S. Elections
With Miroslav Dudik, Sebastien Lahaie, and David Pennock
Economics and Computation. 2013.
3. Forecasting Elections: Voter Intentions versus Expectations
With Justin Wolfers. This Draft: January 23, 2013. *Not Peer-Reviewed, but regularly cited*
2.Debiased Aggregated Polls and Prediction Market Prices
Chance. 2010. Vol. 23, No. 3, pp. 6-7. *Not Peer-Reviewed, but regularly cited*
1. Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and their Biases
Public Opinion Quarterly. 2009. Vol. 73, No. 5, pp. 895-916.
Circulated Working Papers
1. Mobile as Survey Mode Email for Paper
with Tobias Konitzer and Stephanie Eckman
3. Decoupling and Contrasting Turnout and Sentiment in Electoral Change: Evidence from recent Congressional Elections Email for Paper
with Tobias Konitzer, Sharad Goel, and Houshmand Shirani-Mehr.
4. Non-Representative Surveys: Fast, Cheap, and Mostly Accurate
With Sharad Goel and Adam Obeng. This Draft: November 1, 2015.
5. Non-Representative Surveys: Modes, Dynamics, Party, and Likely Voter Space
With Sam Corbett-Davies and Tobias Konitzer. This Draft: December 5, 2017
7. Polls and Prediction Markets: forecasting presidential primaries Email for Paper
With Giorgio Ravalli
2. Post Purchase Search Engine Marketing
with Quianyun Zhang and Shawndra Hill
WWW Conference. 2018.
1. Geolocated Panel to study impacts of events on Twitter
with Han Zhang and Shawndra Hill.
Journal of Data and Information Quality (JDIQ). 2018. Forthcoming.
3. The Science of Fake News
With David M. J. Lazer, Matthew A. Baum, Yochai Benkler, Adam J. Berinsky, Kelly M. Greenhill, Filippo Menczer, Miriam J. Metzger, Brendan Nyhan, Gordon Pennycook, Michael Schudson, Steven A. Sloman, Cass R. Sunstein, Emily A. Thorson, Duncan J. Watts, and Jonathan L. Zittrain
Science. 2018. Vol. 359, No. 6380, pp. 1094-1096.
2. Don’t blame the election on fake news. Blame it on the media.
with Duncan Watts
Columbia Journalism Review, December 5, 2017 *Not Peer-Reviewed, but regularly cited*
1. Rebuilding legitimacy in a post-truth age.
with Duncan Watts
Medium, January 17, 2017 *Not Peer-Reviewed, but regularly cited*