The following list contains papers that fall somewhere between submitted for academic review and published. This is not an exhaustive list of my research:
1) Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and their Biases
Public Opinion Quarterly. 2009. Vol. 73, No. 5, pp 895-916.
Debiased Aggregated Polls and Prediction Market Prices
Chance. 2010. Vol. 23, No. 3, pp 6-7.
2) Simplifying Market Access: a New Confidence-Based Interface
With Florian Teschner
The Journal of Prediction Markets. 2012. Vol. 6, No. 3, pp 27-41.
3) A Combinatorial Prediction Market for the U.S. Elections
With Miroslav Dudik, Sebastien Lahaie, and David Pennock
Economics and Computation. 2013.
4) Lay understanding of probability distributions
With Daniel G. Goldstein
Judgment and Decision Making. 2014. Vol. 9, No. 1, pp. 1–14.
5) The Extent of Price Misalignment in Prediction Markets
With David Pennock
Algorithmic Finance. 2014. Vol. 3, pp. 3-20
6) Combining forecasts for elections: Accurate, relevant, and timely
International Journal of Forecasting. 2015. Vol. 31, pp. 952-964
7) Fundamental models for forecasting elections at the state level
With Patrick Hummel
Electoral Studies. 2014. Vol. 35, pp. 123-139
8] Forecasting elections with non-representative polls
With Wei Wang, Andrew Gelman, and Sharad Goel
International Journal of Forecasting. 2015. Vol. 31, pp. 980-991
9) Are Polls and Probabilities Self-Fulfilling Prophecies?
With Neil Malhotra
Research and Politics. 2014. July-September, 1-10.
10) A comparison of forecasting methods: fundamentals, polling, prediction markets, and experts
With Deepak Pathak and Miroslav Dudik
The Journal of Prediction Markets. 2015. Vol. 9, No. 2, pp 1-31.
11) The Mythical Swing Voter
With Andrew Gelman, Sharad Goel, and Doug Rivers
Quarterly Journal of Political Science. 2016. Forthcoming
12) Online and social media data as an imperfect continuous panel survey
With Fernando Diaz, Michael Gamon, Jake Hofman, and Emre Kiciman.
PlosOne. 2016. 10.1371/journal.pone.0145406.
13) High-Frequency Polling with Non-Representative Data
With Andrew Gelman, Sharad Goel, and Wei Wang.
Book chapter. 2016. Forthcoming
In the Academic Review Process
1) Forecasting Elections: Voter Intentions versus Expectations
With Justin Wolfers. This Draft: January 23, 2013.
My first interview with Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com, May 16, 2010 at AAPOR.
2) Trading Strategies and Market Microstructure: Evidence from a Prediction Market
With Rajiv Sethi. This Draft: June 9, 2015.
3) Expectations: Point-Estimates, Probability Distributions, and Forecasts
This Draft: September 20, 2012.
4) A new way to think about confidence ranges
With Daniel G. Goldstein and Florian Teschner
Email for Copy of Paper.
5) Manipulation in conditional decision markets
With Florian Teschner and Henner Gimpel
Email for Copy of Paper.
6) Selection bias in documenting online conversations
With Ran He This Draft: March 20, 2016.
7) Expertise in the Field Fades in the Lab
With Etan Green and Justin Rao. This Draft: February 21, 2016.
8. Geolocated Panel to study impacts of events on Twitter
With Han Zhang and Shawndra Hill. This Draft: October 17, 2015.
9) Non-Representative Surveys: Fast, Cheap, and Mostly Accurate
With Sharad Goel and Adam Obeng. This Draft: November 1, 2015.
10) Disentangling Total Error, Bias, and Variance in Election Polls
With Houshmand Shirani-Mehr, Sharad Goel, and Andrew Gelman. This Draft: April 10, 2016.