This is a selection of my popular writing. Please go to PredictWise to see all of my latest articles and the full set of articles (I have stopped updating this page):
2014 – U.S. Election (30 Articles):
Click for links »
Microsoft Prediction Lab: 2014 Recap
Wednesday, November 18, 2014, PredictWise
2014 election effect on 2016 election
Wednesday, November 18, 2014, PredictWise
A closer look at that GOP over-performance
Wednesday, November 5, 2014, PredictWise
Overall Calibration Pretty Good …
Wednesday, November 5, 2014, PredictWise
Election Night 2014
Tuesday, November 4, 2014, PredictWise
Microsoft Prediction Lab’s final probabilities
Monday, November 3, 2014, PredictWise
Democrats poised for (possible) great night … in governors elections
Monday, November 3, 2014, PredictWise
Republicans at about 85% to capture U.S. Senate
Monday, November 3, 2014, PredictWise
Hidden Errors and Overconfident Pollsters
Sunday, November 2, 2014, Huffington Post and PredictWise
Election Update – 11/2, 2 Days
Sunday, November 2, 2014, PredictWise
Republicans are going to win the U.S. House
Saturday, November 1, 2014, PredictWise
Election Update – 10/31, 4 Days
Friday, October 31, 2014, PredictWise
Opinion polls can be self-fulfilling prophecies
Thursday, October 30, 2014, Washington Post
Election Update – 10/28, 7 Days
Tuesday, October 28, 2014, PredictWise
Expectation question as a poll of polls
Monday, October 27, 2014, PredictWise
Election Update – 10/23, 12 Days
Thursday, October 23, 2014, PredictWise
Election Update – 10/19, 16 Days
Sunday, October 19, 2014, PredictWise
Senate v. Electoral College
Friday, October 17, 2014, PredictWise
Why Microsoft Prediction Lab
Friday, October 17, 2014, PredictWise
Methods for gubernatorial and senatorial predictions
Monday, October 13, 2014, PredictWise
Election Update – 10/10, 25 Days
Friday, October 10, 2014, PredictWise
Nobel Peace Prize
Wednesday, October 8, 2014, PredictWise
Election Update – 10/8, 27 Days
Wednesday, October 8, 2014, PredictWise
Election Update – 10/1, 34 Days
Wednesday, October 1, 2014, PredictWise
Xbox Polling and the Future of Election Prediction
Tuesday, September 30, 2014, Harvard Business Review
Election Update – 9/25, 40 Days
Thursday, September 25, 2014, PredictWise
Election Update – 9/17, 48 Days
Wednesday, September 17 2014, PredictWise
Election Update – 9/12, 53 Days
Friday, September 12, 2014, PredictWise
Election Update – 9/11, 54 Days
Thursday, September 11, 2014, PredictWise
Modern polling needs innovation, not traditionalism
Monday, August 4, 2014, Washington Post
2014 – Scottish Election (1 Article):
Click for links »
Possible error in Scottish predictions really large and likely favors NO
Thursday, September 18, 2014, PredictWise
2014 – Soccer World Cup (34 Articles):
Click for links »
World Cup Recap: Accurate and Calibrated
Wednesday, July 16, 2014, PredictWise
World Cup, Final: Germany for the Win
Sunday, July 13, 2014, PredictWise
World Cup, Consolation Game: Brazil to Rebound
Saturday, July 12, 2014, PredictWise
World Cup, Semi-Finals, Day 2: Argentina over Netherlands
Wednesday, July 9, 2014, PredictWise
World Cup, Semi-Finals, Day 1: Germany over Brazil
Tuesday, July 8, 2014, PredictWise
World Cup, Round 8, Day 2: Will we get to 12-0 in knockout rounds?!?
Saturday, July 5, 2014, PredictWise
World Cup, Round 8, Day 1: Germany, France, Brazil, and Colombia
Friday, July 4, 2014, PredictWise
World Cup, Round 16, Day 4: USA, USA, USA … USA, USA, USA!!!
Tuesday, July 1, 2014, PredictWise
World Cup, Round 16, Day 3: France and Germany
Monday, June 30, 2014, PredictWise
World Cup, Round 16, Day 2: Netherlands and Costa Rica
Sunday, June 29, 2014, PredictWise
World Cup, Round 16, Day 1: Brazil and Colombia favored
Saturday, June 28, 2014, PredictWise
World Cup Group Stage: Accurate and Calibrated
Friday, June 27, 2014, PredictWise
World Cup Day 15: USA, USA, USA … USA, USA, USA …
Thursday, June 26, 2014, PredictWise
World Cup Day 14: Group E and F … then the USA!
Wednesday, June 25, 2014, PredictWise
World Cup Day 13: Still no faith in Costa Rica!
Tuesday, June 24, 2014, PredictWise
World Cup: USA needs to win, draw, or not lose badly
Monday, June 23, 2014, PredictWise
World Cup Day 12: USA, USA, USA … almost!
Sunday, June 22, 2014, PredictWise
World Cup Day 11: USA, USA, USA v. Portugal
Sunday, June 22, 2014, PredictWise
World Cup Day 10: Argentina and Germany come out to play …
Saturday, June 21, 2014, PredictWise
World Cup Day 9: Half way there …
Friday, June 20, 2014, PredictWise
World Cup Day 8: England
Thursday, June 19, 2014, PredictWise
World Cup Day 7: Spain’s Redemption (or demise)
Wednesday, June 18, 2014, PredictWise
World Cup Day 6: USA! USA! USA! (part 2)
Tuesday, June 17, 2014, PredictWise
World Cup Day 5: USA! USA! USA!
Monday, June 16, 2014, PredictWise
World Cup Day 4: When will the scoring stop?
Sunday, June 15, 2014, PredictWise
World Cup Day 3: Looking for a draw
Saturday, June 14, 2014, PredictWise
World Cup Day 2: Let the games begin!
Friday, June 13, 2014, PredictWise
World Cup Day 1: Brazil opens up the World Cup
Thursday, June 12, 2014, PredictWise
Low latency and highly quantifiable data, advertising, and World Cup predictions
Wednesday, June 11, 2014, PredictWise
Someone needs to teach Goldman Sachs about “markets”: World Cup edition
Tuesday, June 3, 2014, PredictWise
Team-by-Team Predictions
Thursday, May 29, 2014, PredictWise
Predicting the World Cup: a quick primer
Monday, May 26, 2014, PredictWise
World Cup: US’s Group Stage
Sunday, May 18, 2014, PredictWise
World Cup Preview
Thursday, May 15, 2014, PredictWise
2014 – Indian Election (2 Articles):
Click for links »
Microsoft Research’s Indian Election Game
Monday, May 12, 2014, PredictWise
Indian Elections Game
Wednesday, April 9, 2014, PredictWise
2014 – Eurovision (4 Articles):
Click for links »
Eurovision Finals – Live
Saturday, May 10, 2014, PredictWise
Eurovision Finals
Saturday, May 10, 2014, PredictWise
Eurovision Semi-Final 2
Thursday, May 8, 2014, PredictWise
Eurovision Semi-Final 1
Tuesday, May 6, 2014, PredictWise
2014 – NBA Playoffs (X Articles):
Click for links »
NBA Playoffs Round 2
Monday, May 5, 2014, PredictWise
NBA Playoffs Introduction
Friday, April 18, 2014, PredictWise
2014 – NCAAB Playoffs (9 Articles):
Click for links »
NCAA Tourney Wrap-up
Tuesday, April 8, 2014, PredictWise
Elite Eight
Saturday, March 29, 2014, PredictWise
Sweet Sixteen
Wednesday, March 26, 2014, PredictWise
NCAA Basketball Tourney – Calibration
Monday, March 24, 2014, PredictWise
NCAA Basketball Tourney – Round 3 (Day 2)
Sunday, March 23, 2014, PredictWise
NCAA Basketball Tourney – Round 3 (Day 1)
Saturday, March 22, 2014, PredictWise
NCAA Basketball Tourney – Round 2 (Day 2)
Friday, March 21, 2014, PredictWise
NCAA Basketball Tourney – Round 2 (Day 1)
Thursday, March 20, 2014, PredictWise
NCAA Basketball Tourney – First Round Blog Post
Tuesday, March 18, 2014, PredictWise
2014 – Oscars (3 Articles):
Click for links »
Oscar Night!
Sunday, March 2, 2014, PredictWise
Oscar Predictions 2014 – Final Predictions
Saturday, March 1, 2014, PredictWise
Oscar Predictions 2014
Friday, February 21, 2014, PredictWise
2013 – Random (4 Articles):
Click for links »
Investing heavily in Romney; was it a good bet?
Thursday, September 26, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
Bill de Blasio and the NYC mayor’s race
Wednesday, September 4, 2013, PredictWise
PredictWise’s Election Performance
Tuesday, June 11, 2013, PredictWise
Eurovision 2013
Saturday, May 18, 2013, PredictWise
2013 – Oscars (11 Articles):
Click for links »
Judging the Oscar Predictions
Wednesday, March 6, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
Relevant, real-time, accurate, and scalable: 2013 Oscar predictions are a win for predictive science
Monday, February 25, 2013, PredictWise
Oscar Predictions on the Move!
Sunday, February 24, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
My Confident Predictions for the Oscars
Friday, February 22, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
How Many Oscars Will Lincoln Win? Not Too Many!
Tuesday, February 8, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
What Is Predictive of the Oscars?
Tuesday, February 4, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
A Quick Peak at the Other 18 Oscar Categories
Tuesday, January 30, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
Argo Versus Lincoln
Tuesday, January 29, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
Obama Versus Lincoln and Argo
Thursday, January 17, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
The Golden Globes Are All About Argo, But Oscars Still Leaning Lincoln
Monday, January 14, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
Handicapping the Oscars, It Is All About Lincoln
Thursday, January 10, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
2012 – U.S. Election (November) (10 Articles):
Click for links »
Government goes after prediction markets and research
Tuesday, November 27, 2012, Huffington Post and PredictWise
Why The Signal won the election forecasting game
Tuesday, November 13, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Signal forecast goes 50 for 50 with Florida outstanding
Wednesday, November 7, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Democrats will control 53-54 seats in the Senate, not including Maine independent Angus King
Wednesday, November 7, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Election Night Scoreboards
Tuesday, November 6, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
The Signal guide to watching election results
Tuesday, November 6, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Obama still poised to win 303 electoral votes on Tuesday
Monday, November 5, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Romney camp hoping for a systematic polling bias in Ohio
Sunday, November 4, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
YouGov/Xbox Poll Respondents Expect Obama Victory in Ohio (and the election)
Friday, November 2, 2012, Huffington Post and PredictWise
All eyes on—where else?—Ohio
Thursday, November 1, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
2012 – U.S. Election (October) (17 Articles):
Click for links »
National polls are meaningless at this stage in the election
Tuesday, October 30, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Happy first birthday, 2012 presidential campaign
Monday, October 29, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Xbox/YouGov Panel on Romney’s First Debate Victory & Obama’s Subsequent Debate Rebound
Monday, October 29, 2012, Huffington Post and PredictWise
Understanding How Polls Affect Voters
Friday, October 26, 2012, Huffington Post and PredictWise
Senate race in Indiana now leaning Democratic after Mourdock’s abortion comment
Thursday, October 25, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
As goes February, so goes the nation
Wednesday, October 24, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
The election is over! (Results embargoed two weeks)
Tuesday, October 23, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Snapshots and Movies: Most Polls Are Snapshots, but the Xbox/YouGov Panel Shows Voters in Motion
Monday, October 22, 2012, Huffington Post and PredictWise
Romney could win the popular vote and lose the election
Monday, October 22, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Obama still on defense
Wednesday, October 17, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Xbox Live/YouGov Polling
Monday, October 15, 2012, Huffington Post and PredictWise
The Senate is the Democrats’ to lose as five more states shift
Monday, October 15, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Who won the vice presidential debate? Doesn’t matter.
Friday, October 12, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Romney chips away at Obama’s lead, but electoral math still favors president
Wednesday, October 10, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Debates don’t move polls. Debate winners do.
Thursday, October 4, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Academics love models, but their window of opportunity has passed
Wednesday, October 3, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Even before debates, electoral map appears largely written in stone
Monday, October 1, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
2012 – U.S. Election (September) (12 Articles):
Click for links »
Why Ohio Is So Pivotal for Romney
Tuesday, September 25, 2012, Huffington Post and PredictWise
The downside of outside spending: Candidates are hard to shop for
Tuesday, September 25, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Introducing WiseQ Game – Election 2012
Monday, September 24, 2012, PredictWise
Democrats likely to retain Senate as four critical races shift in their favor
Monday, September 24, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Can Romney still win? Of course—just not the way things are going
Thursday, September 20, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Hidden video moves Obama 2.5% closer to reelection
Wednesday, September 19, 2012, PredictWise
Search data shows wildly divergent narratives on right and left
Tuesday, September 18, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Obama Reaches His Highest Likelihood of Reelection
Monday, September 17, 2012, Huffington Post and PredictWise
Romney’s chief opponent is not Obama. It’s time.
Wednesday, September 12, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Markets sour on both Romney and Obama speeches, but conventions still boost Democrats
Friday, September 7, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Trust me, a primary reminder
Wednesday, September 5, 2012, PredictWise
Romney catches up in polls with convention bounce, but now it’s Obama’s turn
Wednesday, September 5, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
2012 – U.S. Election (August) (10 Articles):
Click for links »
Republican convention fails to move markets, but expect a bounce in polls (and ignore it, for now)
Friday, August 31, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Three States Hold the Keys to the Election
Wednesday, August 29, 2012, Huffington Post and PredictWise
Christie’s keynote address comes with awkward political calculus: An economist’s view
Tuesday, August 28, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
All signs point to a Romney victory except one (a very big one)
Thursday, August 23, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Missouri GOP senate candidate drops heavily in prediction today due to rape comments
Monday, August 20, 2012, PredictWise
Akin’s ‘Macaca moment’ could flip the Senate race
Monday, August 20, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Romney’s path to victory goes through Florida, Ohio and Virginia
Friday, August 17, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
With dozens of scenarios, control of the Senate is a toss-up
Monday, August 13, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Ryan pick damages market odds of Romney victory in Florida
Saturday, August 11, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Prediction markets leaning toward safe choice for Romney’s running mate
Thursday August 9, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
2012 – U.S. Election (October 2011 to July 2012) (18 selected Articles):
Click for links »
The Signal prediction: Obama maintains fragile hold on 303 electoral votes in November
Wednesday, July 18, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
From now to the election, Obama’s economic record is set in stone
Friday, July 6, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Pay no attention to the pollster behind the curtain
Wednesday, May 9, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Is the New Jersey tunnel project too big to succeed? The economist’s view.
Friday, April 20, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Election prediction scorecard: Markets got 21 of 26 forecasts correct in first half of primary
Monday, March 26, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
The imaginary connection between tax rates and GDP
Monday, March 12, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
As go the prediction markets, so goes Ohio
Thursday, March 8, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Markets heavily favor The Artist for top Oscar laurels
Thursday, February 23, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Obama poised to win 2012 election with 303 electoral votes: The Signal Forecast
Thursday, February 16, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
The Twitter users who drove the furor over Komen and Planned Parenthood
Saturday, February 4, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
As Gingrich’s fate rises, so does Obama’s
Tuesday, January 24, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
The real reason no one impersonates dead voters: High risk, little benefit
Friday, January 20, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Santorum does not have a “Google Problem.” He has a civil rights problem.
Friday, January 6, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Romney leads prediction markets even as poll numbers lag
Wednesday, December 28, 2011, Yahoo! Signal
Romney is still out front in the prediction markets
Wednesday, December 7, 2011, Yahoo! Signal
Payroll tax debate has 2012 implications
Thursday, December 1, 2011, Yahoo! Signal
A bad bet? Freddie and Newt make markets cautious
Wednesday, November 16, 2011, Yahoo! Signal
T-minus 363 days to election 2012: Welcome to The Signal!
Monday, November 7, 2011, Yahoo! Signal
2008 – U.S. Election (3 Articles):
Click for links »
Market Watcher’s Guide to Election Day with Justin Wolfers
Wall Street Journal Online, November 4, 2008.
– Election-eve assessment of the key political trends.
Market Manipulation Muddies Election Outlook with Justin Wolfers
Wall Street Journal Online, October 2, 2008.
– Assesses the extent to which prediction market prices may have been distorted by market manipulation.
Clinton’s Win Doesn’t Move Political Markets with Justin Wolfers
Wall Street Journal Online, April 23, 2008.
– Interprets the implications of the Democratic Pennsylvania primary. Our verdict: It’s a draw.