On this site I provide information on my background, research, and few random thoughts. I am an economist at Microsoft Research in New York City. I have a Ph.D. in applied economics from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. My primary body of work is on forecasting, and understanding public interest and sentiment. Related work examines how the public absorbs information. I write extensively, in both the academic and popular press, on polling, prediction markets, social media data, online data, search data, and administrative data; most of my popular work has focused on understanding the public’s sentiment, an economist take on public policy, news consumption, advertising, and finance. After joining Microsoft in 2012 I have been building prediction and sentiment models, and organizing novel/experimental polling and prediction games; this work has been utilized by Bing, MSN, Cortana, and Xbox.
I am also a fellow at the Applied Statistics Center at Columbia and the Penn Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies.