For most updated list, please visit PredictWise.
When you hear the margin of error is plus or minus 3 percent. Think 7 instead.
October 5, 2016 on New York Times (by David)
We Gave Four Good Pollsters the Same Raw Data. They Had Four Different Results.
September 20, 2016 on New York Times
Why the Whole Trump-Clinton Election Could Probably Just Be Held in Pennsylvania
September 16, 2016 on New York Times (extensive Q&A with me)
Ranking the 2016 Presidential Primary Polls and Predictions
June 29, 2016 on Bloomberg
Who’s Going to Win the Presidential Election?
Tuesday, June 7, 2016 on Columbia Magazine
There’s A High Chance Of A Contested Republican Convention
Wednesday, March 30, 2016 on Huffington Post
You can bet real money on the US Election. It’s for research
Tuesday, March 1, 2016 on Wired
Voters Expect Republican Wins, in Kansas and Elsewhere
Monday, October 27, 2014 on New York Times
Microsoft Begins a Push Into the Polling World
Monday, September 29, 2014 on New York Times
How Microsoft Perfectly Predicted the World Cup’s Final Stage
Monday, July 14, 2014 on Foreign Policy
Microsoft Research Grabs More Room for Data Science in Silicon Alley
Wednesday, August 28, 2013 on Xconomy
Microsoft Predicts Eurovision (Yup, you heard that right). The Winner Will Be Denmark
Wednesday, May 15, 2013 on Bloomberg
The Magic Prophet: Let’s Meet the Prophetic Microsoft Researcher!
Friday, April 5, 2013 on Global Entrepreneur
Predicting Oscar Winners
Podcast on Friday, February 22, 2013 on NPR’s On the Media
The science of predicting Oscar winners
Video on Thursday, February 21, 2013 on Reuters TV
Big Data Versus Little Data: Predicting the Academy Awards
Podcast on Thursday, February 21, 2013 on IEEE Spectrum
And the Oscar Goes to …
Wednesday, February 13, 2013 on MSR
Obama Expected to Win Ohio, Say YouGov/Xbox Poll Respondents
Friday, November 2, 2012 on Time
A Better Poll Question: Who Do You Think Will Win?
Thursday, November 1, 2012 on New York Times
Forget the polls, Obama is still winning: PredictWise – The Trail
Video on Friday, October 19, 2012 on Reuters TV
Why the President Is Still a Heavy Favorite on the Prediction Markets
Friday, October 12, 2012 on PBS NewsHour
Political Polls, Professors and Election Markets Predict the Presidential Race
Video on Friday, October 12, 2012 on PBS NewsHour
Microsoft Researcher Predicts Obama to Win
Podcast on Wednesday, October 3, 2012 on IEEE Spectrum
’12 Campaign: Predicting the U.S. Election
Wednesday, September 26, 2012 on MSR