The following list contains papers that fall somewhere between submitted for academic review and published. This is not an exhaustive list of my research:
**LLMs & Human Cognition**
(Click Here For: Behavioral Finance/Economics, Political Science, Marketing, General Interest/Communications)
7. A Taxonomy for Understanding and Identifying Uncertainty in AI-Generated Responses
With Snehal Prabhudesai, Daniel G. Goldstein, Jake M. Hofman. Working Paper Draft
6. Opportunities and risks of LLMs in survey research
With James Brand, Hope Schroader, Jenny Wang. Working Paper Draft, Email for Paper
5. Math Education with Large Language Models: Peril or Promise?
With Harsh Kumar, Daniel G. Goldstein, Jake M. Hofman. Working Paper Draft
4. Comparing Traditional and LLM-based Search for Consumer Choice: A Randomized Experiment
With Sofia Eleni Spatharioti, Daniel G. Goldstein, Jake M. Hofman. Working Paper Draft
3. Prevalence and prevention of large language model use in crowd work
With Veniamin Veselovsky, Manoel Horta Ribeiro, Philip Cozzolino, Andrew Gordon, and Robert West.
Communications of the ACM. 2024.
2. Early LLM-based Tools for Enterprise Information Workers Likely Provide Meaningful Boosts to Productivity
With Alexia Cambon, Brent Hecht, Benjamin Edelman, Donald Ngwe, Sonia Jaffe, et al.
Microsoft.com. December 2023. (Non-Peer-Reviewed Publication)
1. A Sports Analogy for Understanding Different Ways to Use AI
With Jake M. Hofman and Daniel G. Goldstein
Harvard Business Review. December 4, 2023.
**Behavioral Finance/Economics**
(Click Here For: LLMs & Human Cognition, Political Science, Marketing, General Interest/Communications)
18. Designing Expressive and Liquid Financial Options Markets via Linear Programming and Automated Market Making
With David Pennock, Xintong Wang, and Nikhil R. Devanur. Working Paper Draft, Email for Paper
17. Reevaluating the Necessity of Attention Check Questions
With Eyal Peer and Andrew Gordon. Working Paper Draft, Email for Paper
16. Data quality of platforms and panels for online behavioral research
With Eyal Peer, Andrew Gordon, Azk Evernden, and Ekaterina Damer
Behavior Research Methods. 2022.
15. Log-time Prediction Markets for Interval Securities
With Miroslav Dudik, David M. Pennock, and Xintong Wang
AAMAS. 2021.
14. Towards a Theory of Confidence in Market-Based Predictions
With Rupert Freeman, David M. Pennock, Daniel Reevers, and Bo Waggoner
Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications. 2021.
13. Designing a Combinatorial Financial Options Market
With Xintong Wang, David M. Pennock, Nikhil R. Devanur, Biaoshuai Tao, and Michael P. Wellman
Economics and Computation. 2021.
12. Parallax and Tax
With Etan Green and Haksoo Lee. (Archived) in 2020
11. A Sharp Test of the Portability of Expertise
with Etan Green and Justin Rao
Management Science. 2019.
10. Understanding Market Functionality and Trading Success
With James Schmitz
PlosOne. 2019.
9. Manipulation in conditional decision markets
With Florian Teschner and Henner Gimpel
Group Decision and Negotiation. 2017. Vol. 26, No. 5, pp. 953-971.
8. Selection bias in documenting online conversations
With Ran He. (Archived) in 2016
7. Trading Strategies and Market Microstructure: Evidence from a Prediction Market
With Rajiv Sethi
Journal of Prediction Markets. 2016. Vol. 10, No. 1.
6. A comparison of forecasting methods: fundamentals, polling, prediction markets, and experts
With Deepak Pathak and Miroslav Dudik
The Journal of Prediction Markets. 2015. Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 1-31.
5. The Extent of Price Misalignment in Prediction Markets
With David Pennock
Algorithmic Finance. 2014. Vol. 3, pp. 3-20.
4. Lay understanding of probability distributions
With Daniel G. Goldstein
Judgment and Decision Making. 2014. Vol. 9, No. 1, pp. 1–14.
3. Simplifying Market Access: a New Confidence-Based Interface
With Florian Teschner
The Journal of Prediction Markets. 2012. Vol. 6, No. 3, pp. 27-41.
2. Expectations: Point-Estimates, Probability Distributions, and Forecasts
(Archived) in 2012
1. A new way to think about confidence ranges
With Daniel G. Goldstein and Florian Teschner. Working Paper Draft, Email for Paper
**Political Science**
(Click for: LLMs & Human Cognition, Behavioral Finance/Economics, Marketing, General Interest/Communications)
34. Identity isn’t everything – how far do demographics take us towards
self-identified party ID?
With Sabina Tomkins. Working Paper Draft, Email for Paper
33. Predicting partisanship to disentangle issues and identity
With Sabina Tomkins. Working Paper Draft, Email for Paper
32. Gun Purchase Interest as Backlash to Black Lives Matter Protests
With Masha Krupenkin and Elad Yom-Tov. Working Paper Draft, Email for Paper
31. Surveying Absorption and Impact of News
With Hope Schroader and Jenny Wang. Working Paper Draft, Email for Paper
30. The cost of anti-Asian racism during the COVID-19 pandemic
with Justin T. Huang, Masha Krupenkin, and Julia Lee Cunningham
Nature Human Behaviour. 2023. pp 1-14.
29. Blocks as geographic discontinuities: The effect of polling place assignment on voting
with Sabina Tomkins, Keniel Yao, Johann Gaebler, Tobias Konitzer, Sharad Goel, Marc Meredith, Michael Morse, and Houshmand Shirani-Mehr.
Political Analysis. 2023. Vol 31, No. 2, pp 165-180.
28. Do Partisans Make Different Investment Decisions When Their Party is in Power?
with Masha Krupenkin and Shawndra Hill
Political Behavior. 2023. pp 1-27.
27. Anti-Immigrant Rhetoric and ICE Reporting Interest: Evidence from a Large-Scale Study of Web Search Data
With Masha Krupenkin and Shawndra Hill
British Journal of Political Science . 2023. Forthcoming
26. Combatting gerrymandering with social choice: The design of multi-member districts
with Neil Garg, Wess Gurnee, and David Shmoys
Economics and Computation. 2022.
25. Strategic Polling Limits the External Validity of Early Election Polling
With Ling Dong. This Draft: August 4, 2020.
24. One Person, One Vote: Estimating the Prevalence of Double Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections
with Sharad Goel, Marc Meredith.
American Political Science Review (APSR). 2020. Vol. 114, No. 2, pp. 456-469.
23. Using big data and algorithms to determine the effect of geographically targeted advertising on vote intention: Evidence form the 2012 US presidential election
with Tobias Konitzer, Shawndra Hill, and Kenneth Wilbur.
Political Communications. 2018. Vol. 36, No. 1, pp. 1-16.
22. President Trump Stress Disorder: Partisanship, Ethnicity, and Expressive Reporting of Mental Distress after the 2016 Election
with Masha Krupenkin, Shawndra Hill, and Elad Yom-Tov
Sage Open. 2019. Vol. 9, No. 1.
21. Economic Expectations, Voting, and Economic Decisions around Elections
With Gur Huberman, Tobias Konitzer, Masha Krupenkin, and Shawndra Hill.
AEA Papers and Procceedings. 2018. Vol. 108, pp. 597-602.
20. Disentangling Total Error, Bias, and Variance in Election Polls
with Houshmand Shirani-Mehr, Sharad Goel, and Andrew Gelman.
Journal of the American Statistical Association (JASA). 2018. Vol. 113, No. 522, pp 607-614.
19. Decoupling and Contrasting Turnout and Sentiment in Electoral Change: Evidence from recent Congressional Elections Email for Paper
with Tobias Konitzer, Sharad Goel, and Houshmand Shirani-Mehr.
18.
17.
16. Polls and Prediction Markets: forecasting presidential primaries Email for Paper
With Giorgio Ravalli
15. Non-Representative Surveys: Modes, Dynamics, Party, and Likely Voter Space
With Tobias Konitzer and Sam Corbett-Davies. This Draft: December 5, 2017.
14. High-Frequency Polling with Non-Representative Data
With Andrew Gelman, Sharad Goel, and Wei Wang.
Political Communication in Real Time. 2017.
13. The Mythical Swing Voter
With Andrew Gelman, Sharad Goel, and Doug Rivers
Quarterly Journal of Political Science. 2016. Vol. 11, No. 1, pp 103-130.
12. Online and social media data as an imperfect continuous panel survey
With Fernando Diaz, Michael Gamon, Jake Hofman, and Emre Kiciman.
PlosOne. 2016. 10.1371/journal.pone.0145406.
11. Mobile as Survey Mode
With Stephanie Eckman and Tobias Konitzer.
Proceedings of the Survey Research Methods Section, ASA. 2016.
10. Combining forecasts for elections: Accurate, relevant, and timely
International Journal of Forecasting. 2015. Vol. 31, pp. 952-964.
9. Combining forecasts for elections: Accurate, relevant, and timely
International Journal of Forecasting. 2015. Vol. 31, pp. 952-964.
8. Non-Representative Surveys: Fast, Cheap, and Mostly Accurate
With Sharad Goel and Adam Obeng. This Draft: November 1, 2015.
7. Xbox Polling and the Future of Election Prediction
Harvard Business Review. September 30, 2014 *Not Peer-Reviewed, but regularly cited*
6. Fundamental models for forecasting elections at the state level
With Patrick Hummel
Electoral Studies. 2014. Vol. 35, pp. 123-139.
5. Are Polls and Probabilities Self-Fulfilling Prophecies?
With Neil Malhotra
Research and Politics. 2014. July-September, pp. 1-10.
4. Forecasting Elections: Voter Intentions versus Expectations
With Justin Wolfers. This Draft: January 23, 2013. *Not Peer-Reviewed, but regularly cited*
3. A Combinatorial Prediction Market for the U.S. Elections
With Miroslav Dudik, Sebastien Lahaie, and David Pennock
Economics and Computation. 2013.
2.Debiased Aggregated Polls and Prediction Market Prices
Chance. 2010. Vol. 23, No. 3, pp. 6-7. *Not Peer-Reviewed, but regularly cited*
1. Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and their Biases
Public Opinion Quarterly. 2009. Vol. 73, No. 5, pp. 895-916.
**Marketing**
(Click for: LLMs & Human Cognition, Behavioral Finance/Economics, Political Science, General Interest/Communications)
7. The Dynamic Impact of Temporally Turning off TV Ad on Search: Evidence from the U.S. Wireless Telecom Industry
with Jia Liu and Shawndra Hill Working Paper Draft
6. Auto-Complete: A Hidden Recommendation Engine
with Jared Katzman Working Paper Draft
5. Search conversion journeys and the missed opportunity of associated keywords
with Elad Yom-Tov, Joe Veverka, and Coen Needell Working Paper Draft
4. Streaming Services and Multilevel Conversion Journeys
with Elad Yom-Tov and Sidharth Satya Working Paper Draft
3. Vaccine advertising: Preach to the converted or to the unaware?
with Masha Krupenkin and Elad Yom-Tov
NPJ Digital Medicine. 2021. Vol. 4, No 1, pp 23.
2. Geolocated Panel to study impacts of events on Twitter
with Han Zhang and Shawndra Hill.
Journal of Data and Information Quality (JDIQ). 2018. Vol 10, No 1, pp 1-24.
2. Post Purchase Search Engine Marketing
with Quianyun Zhang and Shawndra Hill
WWW Conference. 2018.
**General Interest/Communications**
(Click for: LLMs & Human Cognition, Behavioral Finance/Economics, Political Science, Marketing)
17. The Twitterfication of Legacy Mainstream Media
With Elliot Pickens and Duncan Watts. Working Paper Draft, Email for Paper
16. The diminishing state of shared reality on US television news
With Homa Hosseinmardi, Samuel Wolken, and Duncan J. Watts. Working Paper Draft
15. Framing in the Presence of Supporting Data: A Case Study in U.S. Economic News
With Alexandria Leto, Elliot Pickens, Coen D. Needell, and Maria Leonor Pacheco
ACL-2024. 2024.
14. Misunderstanding the harms of online misinformation
With Ceren Budak, Brendan Nyhan, Emily Thorson, and Duncan Watts
Nature. 2024. Vol. 630, pp 45-53.
13. Warped Front Pages
With Elliot Pickens, Gideon Heltzer, Jenny wang, and Duncan Watts
Columbia Journalism Review. November 20, 2023
12. Quantifying partisan news diets in Web and TV audiences
With Daniel Muise, Homa Hosseinmardi, Baird Howland, Markus Mobius, and Duncan Watts
Science Advances. 2022. Vol. 8, No. 28, eabn0083.
11. If a Tree Falls in the Forest: Presidential Press Conferences and Early Media Narratives about the COVID-19 Crisis
With Masha Krupenkin, Kai Zhu, and Dylan Walker
Journal of Quantitative Description. 2022. Vol 2.
10. Addendum to: Examining potential bias in large-scale censored data
With Jennifer Allen, Markus Mobius, and Duncan Watts
Harvard Kennedy School Misinformation Review. 2022.
9. Examining the consumption of radical content on YouTube
With Homa Hosseinmardi, Amir Ghasemaian, Aaron Clauset, Markus Mobius and Duncan Watts
PNAS. 2021. Vol. 118, No. 32.
8. Examining potential bias in large-scale censored data
With Jennifer Allen, Markus Mobius, and Duncan Watts
Harvard Kennedy School Misinformation Review. 2021.
7. Measuring the news and its impact on democracy
With Markus Mobius and Duncan Watts
PNAS. 2021. Vol. 118, No. 15.
6. Comparing Estimates of News Consumption from Survey and Passively collected Behavioral Data
With Jennifer Allen, Stephanie Eckman, Baird Howland, Tobias Konitzer, Markus Mobius, and Duncan Watts
Public Opinion Quarterly. 2021. Vol. 85, No S1, pp 347-870.
5. Evaluating the fake news problem at the scale of the information ecosystem
With Jennifer Allen, Baird Howland, Markus Mobius, and Duncan Watts
Science Advances. 2020. Vol. 6, No. 14, eaay3539.
4. The Science of Fake News
With David M. J. Lazer, Matthew A. Baum, Yochai Benkler, Adam J. Berinsky, Kelly M. Greenhill, Filippo Menczer, Miriam J. Metzger, Brendan Nyhan, Gordon Pennycook, Michael Schudson, Steven A. Sloman, Cass R. Sunstein, Emily A. Thorson, Duncan J. Watts, and Jonathan L. Zittrain
Science. 2018. Vol. 359, No. 6380, pp. 1094-1096.
3. The minority report on the fake news crisis: (spoiler alert: it’s the real news)
With Duncan Watts
Understanding and Addressing the Disinformation Ecosystem. 2017.
2. Don’t blame the election on fake news. Blame it on the media.
with Duncan Watts
Columbia Journalism Review, December 5, 2017 (Non-peer-reviewed publication)
1. Rebuilding legitimacy in a post-truth age.
with Duncan Watts
Medium, January 17, 2017 (Non-peer-reviewed publication)