Popular Press

2017-2023 was mainly lost to Twitter, but here is a partial list of my time when I was actively written about and writing actual articles.

**Articles about Me** (Click Here For: Articles by Me)

When you hear the margin of error is plus or minus 3 percent. Think 7 instead.
October 5, 2016 on New York Times (by David)
We Gave Four Good Pollsters the Same Raw Data. They Had Four Different Results.
September 20, 2016 on New York Times
Why the Whole Trump-Clinton Election Could Probably Just Be Held in Pennsylvania
September 16, 2016 on New York Times (extensive Q&A with me)
Ranking the 2016 Presidential Primary Polls and Predictions
June 29, 2016 on Bloomberg
Who’s Going to Win the Presidential Election?
Tuesday, June 7, 2016 on Columbia Magazine
There’s A High Chance Of A Contested Republican Convention
Wednesday, March 30, 2016 on Huffington Post
You can bet real money on the US Election. It’s for research
Tuesday, March 1, 2016 on Wired
How Microsoft Helped ESPN With Its Top 100 All-Time NBA Rankings Podcast
February 22, 2016 on Tech Times
From data collection to data analytics to data consumption Video
August 24, 2015 on Microsoft Research
5 Q’s for David Rothschild, Economist at Microsoft Research
July 20, 2015 on Center for Data Innovation
Microsoft came remarkably close to predicting all 24 Oscar winners
February 23, 2015 on Engadget
Voters Expect Republican Wins, in Kansas and Elsewhere
Monday, October 27, 2014 on New York Times
Microsoft Begins a Push Into the Polling World
Monday, September 29, 2014 on New York Times
How Microsoft Perfectly Predicted the World Cup’s Final Stage
Monday, July 14, 2014 on Foreign Policy
• Microsoft’s version of ‘Nate Silver’ dishes out data-backed predictions for 2014
December 26, 2013 on Geek Wire
Microsoft Research Grabs More Room for Data Science in Silicon Alley
Wednesday, August 28, 2013 on Xconomy
Microsoft Predicts Eurovision (Yup, you heard that right). The Winner Will Be Denmark
Wednesday, May 15, 2013 on Bloomberg
The Magic Prophet: Let’s Meet the Prophetic Microsoft Researcher!
Friday, April 5, 2013 on Global Entrepreneur
Predicting Oscar Winners
Podcast on Friday, February 22, 2013 on NPR’s On the Media
The science of predicting Oscar winners
Video on Thursday, February 21, 2013 on Reuters TV
Big Data Versus Little Data: Predicting the Academy Awards
Podcast on Thursday, February 21, 2013 on IEEE Spectrum
And the Oscar Goes to …
Wednesday, February 13, 2013 on MSR
Obama Expected to Win Ohio, Say YouGov/Xbox Poll Respondents
Friday, November 2, 2012 on Time
A Better Poll Question: Who Do You Think Will Win?
Thursday, November 1, 2012 on New York Times
Forget the polls, Obama is still winning: PredictWise – The Trail
Video on Friday, October 19, 2012 on Reuters TV
Why the President Is Still a Heavy Favorite on the Prediction Markets
Friday, October 12, 2012 on PBS NewsHour
Political Polls, Professors and Election Markets Predict the Presidential Race
Video on Friday, October 12, 2012 on PBS NewsHour
Microsoft Researcher Predicts Obama to Win
Podcast on Wednesday, October 3, 2012 on IEEE Spectrum
’12 Campaign: Predicting the U.S. Election
Wednesday, September 26, 2012 on MSR

**Articles By Me** (Click Here For: Articles About Me)

What Americans Mean When They Talk About “Populism”. Buzzfeed February 17, 2017
This Poll Shows A Lot Of Republicans Like Ivanka — And So Do 22% Of Democrats. Buzzfeed February 16, 2017
Trump and the GOP Have Massively Unpopular Tax Policies. Slate November 30, 2016
New poll: 30% of Trump supporters say they’ll protest the election if he loses. Washington Post November 8, 2016
Chasing Electoral Ghosts: We looked at 130 million ballots from the 2012 election and
found practically zero evidence of fraud.. Slate November 7, 2016
Hillary Clinton would win in Australia, New Zealand, England, Canada, France, Mexico and Germany. But not Russia.. Washington Post November 7, 2016
‘It Really Does Get Into Your Head.’ The Election Through the Eyes of Teenage Girls. New York Times November 4, 2016 (written by Claire Cain Miller)
Preparing for Future: Smartphone Only Polling. Huffington Post October 30, 2016
Poll: 60% of Republicans believe illegal immigrants vote; 43% believe people vote using dead people’s names. Washington Post October 24, 2016
Will Republican voters flee Trump, post-video? Here’s what we found.. Washington Post October 14, 2016
When you hear the margin of error is plus or minus 3 percent. Think 7instead. New York Times October 5, 2016
All polls are non-probability to varying degrees. Huffington Post September 7, 2016
Innovative, Interesting New Poll Has Some Problems. Huffington Post August 22, 2016
There’s No Evidence Of The ‘Bradley Effect’ In Trump Polls. Huffington Post August 17, 2016
Why you shouldn’t be fooled by polling bounces. Slate August 5, 2016
Quick Take: solid convention bounce for Clinton. Huffington Post July 30, 2016
Who cares about free trade? Not many Americans, it turns out.. Washington Post July 29, 2016
Something’s Odd About the Political Betting Markets. Slate July 11, 2016
Guns And Immigration: Critical Wedge Issues Of 2016. Huffington Post July 9, 2016
Brexit: leave voters relatively unfazed by currency collapse. Huffington Post July 1, 2016
Before you get surgery, check this evidence: Less-invasive treatments work better. Washington Post, June 30, 2016
Four keys for predicting whether Britain will leave the European Union. Washington Post, June 22, 2016
Financial expectations of Brexit for UK voters. Huffington Post, June 22, 2016
There is no “Trump Bump” in the polls — just a growing lead for the Democrats. Washington Post, June 7, 2016
New polls show that more Americans prefer Democrats’ policies. Washington Post, May 27, 2016
Be Careful What You Wish For: Trump Has A 30 Percent Chance To Win Presidency. Huffington Post, May 4, 2016
Will it be Clinton or Trump in November? Here’s what’s wrong with most predictions. Washington Post, May 3, 2016
Trump Goes from Lead to Command of GOP Nomination. Huffington Post, April 27, 2016
We did the math. Cruz was smart to campaign in a Bronx district with almost no Republican voters. Washington Post, April 19, 2016.
Donald Trump Is Still The Most Likely Republican Candidate. Huffington Post, April 17, 2016
Democratic Nominee (Whomever That Is) Still Strong. Huffington Post, April 6, 2016
The prediction markets were right about Tuesday’s primaries. So what do they say about November?. Washington Post, March 17, 2016
Trump is closer to what most Republicans believe than the ‘establishment’ candidates are. Washington Post, March 6, 2016

2018-2020 (20 Articles):
Click for links »

Fundamental Model Predicts Electoral College Tie
February 27, 2020, PredictWise
Impeachment: Can we expect more of the change in sentiment we have seen recently?
November 4, 2019, PredictWise
Data Journalist Publisher is Unfortunate Pundit
October 29, 2019, PredictWise
PredictWise: 20-For-20
July 1, 2019, PredictWise

2014 – U.S. Election (30 Articles):
Click for links »

Microsoft Prediction Lab: 2014 Recap
Wednesday, November 18, 2014, PredictWise
2014 election effect on 2016 election
Wednesday, November 18, 2014, PredictWise
A closer look at that GOP over-performance
Wednesday, November 5, 2014, PredictWise
Overall Calibration Pretty Good …
Wednesday, November 5, 2014, PredictWise
Election Night 2014
Tuesday, November 4, 2014, PredictWise
Microsoft Prediction Lab’s final probabilities
Monday, November 3, 2014, PredictWise
Democrats poised for (possible) great night … in governors elections
Monday, November 3, 2014, PredictWise
Republicans at about 85% to capture U.S. Senate
Monday, November 3, 2014, PredictWise
Hidden Errors and Overconfident Pollsters
Sunday, November 2, 2014, Huffington Post and PredictWise
Election Update – 11/2, 2 Days
Sunday, November 2, 2014, PredictWise
Republicans are going to win the U.S. House
Saturday, November 1, 2014, PredictWise
Election Update – 10/31, 4 Days
Friday, October 31, 2014, PredictWise
Opinion polls can be self-fulfilling prophecies
Thursday, October 30, 2014, Washington Post
Election Update – 10/28, 7 Days
Tuesday, October 28, 2014, PredictWise
Expectation question as a poll of polls
Monday, October 27, 2014, PredictWise
Election Update – 10/23, 12 Days
Thursday, October 23, 2014, PredictWise
Election Update – 10/19, 16 Days
Sunday, October 19, 2014, PredictWise
Senate v. Electoral College
Friday, October 17, 2014, PredictWise
Why Microsoft Prediction Lab
Friday, October 17, 2014, PredictWise
Methods for gubernatorial and senatorial predictions
Monday, October 13, 2014, PredictWise
Election Update – 10/10, 25 Days
Friday, October 10, 2014, PredictWise
Nobel Peace Prize
Wednesday, October 8, 2014, PredictWise
Election Update – 10/8, 27 Days
Wednesday, October 8, 2014, PredictWise
Election Update – 10/1, 34 Days
Wednesday, October 1, 2014, PredictWise
Xbox Polling and the Future of Election Prediction
Tuesday, September 30, 2014, Harvard Business Review
Election Update – 9/25, 40 Days
Thursday, September 25, 2014, PredictWise
Election Update – 9/17, 48 Days
Wednesday, September 17 2014, PredictWise
Election Update – 9/12, 53 Days
Friday, September 12, 2014, PredictWise
Election Update – 9/11, 54 Days
Thursday, September 11, 2014, PredictWise
Modern polling needs innovation, not traditionalism
Monday, August 4, 2014, Washington Post

2014 – Scottish Election (1 Article):
Click for links »

Possible error in Scottish predictions really large and likely favors NO
Thursday, September 18, 2014, PredictWise

2014 – Soccer World Cup (34 Articles):
Click for links »

2014 – Indian Election (2 Articles):
Click for links »

Microsoft Research’s Indian Election Game
Monday, May 12, 2014, PredictWise
Indian Elections Game
Wednesday, April 9, 2014, PredictWise

2014 – Eurovision (4 Articles):
Click for links »

Eurovision Finals – Live
Saturday, May 10, 2014, PredictWise
Eurovision Finals
Saturday, May 10, 2014, PredictWise
Eurovision Semi-Final 2
Thursday, May 8, 2014, PredictWise
Eurovision Semi-Final 1
Tuesday, May 6, 2014, PredictWise

2014 – NBA Playoffs (X Articles):
Click for links »

NBA Playoffs Round 2
Monday, May 5, 2014, PredictWise
NBA Playoffs Introduction
Friday, April 18, 2014, PredictWise

2014 – NCAAB Playoffs (9 Articles):
Click for links »

NCAA Tourney Wrap-up
Tuesday, April 8, 2014, PredictWise
Elite Eight
Saturday, March 29, 2014, PredictWise
Sweet Sixteen
Wednesday, March 26, 2014, PredictWise
NCAA Basketball Tourney – Calibration
Monday, March 24, 2014, PredictWise
NCAA Basketball Tourney – Round 3 (Day 2)
Sunday, March 23, 2014, PredictWise
NCAA Basketball Tourney – Round 3 (Day 1)
Saturday, March 22, 2014, PredictWise
NCAA Basketball Tourney – Round 2 (Day 2)
Friday, March 21, 2014, PredictWise
NCAA Basketball Tourney – Round 2 (Day 1)
Thursday, March 20, 2014, PredictWise
NCAA Basketball Tourney – First Round Blog Post
Tuesday, March 18, 2014, PredictWise

2014 – Oscars (3 Articles):
Click for links »

Oscar Night!
Sunday, March 2, 2014, PredictWise
Oscar Predictions 2014 – Final Predictions
Saturday, March 1, 2014, PredictWise
Oscar Predictions 2014
Friday, February 21, 2014, PredictWise

2013 – Random (4 Articles):
Click for links »

Investing heavily in Romney; was it a good bet?
Thursday, September 26, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
Bill de Blasio and the NYC mayor’s race
Wednesday, September 4, 2013, PredictWise
PredictWise’s Election Performance
Tuesday, June 11, 2013, PredictWise
Eurovision 2013
Saturday, May 18, 2013, PredictWise

2013 – Oscars (11 Articles):
Click for links »

Judging the Oscar Predictions
Wednesday, March 6, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
Relevant, real-time, accurate, and scalable: 2013 Oscar predictions are a win for predictive science
Monday, February 25, 2013, PredictWise
Oscar Predictions on the Move!
Sunday, February 24, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
My Confident Predictions for the Oscars
Friday, February 22, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
How Many Oscars Will Lincoln Win? Not Too Many!
Tuesday, February 8, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
What Is Predictive of the Oscars?
Tuesday, February 4, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
A Quick Peak at the Other 18 Oscar Categories
Tuesday, January 30, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
Argo Versus Lincoln
Tuesday, January 29, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
Obama Versus Lincoln and Argo
Thursday, January 17, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
The Golden Globes Are All About Argo, But Oscars Still Leaning Lincoln
Monday, January 14, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise
Handicapping the Oscars, It Is All About Lincoln
Thursday, January 10, 2013, Huffington Post and PredictWise

2012 – U.S. Election (November) (10 Articles):
Click for links »

2012 – U.S. Election (October) (17 Articles):
Click for links »

2012 – U.S. Election (September) (12 Articles):
Click for links »

Why Ohio Is So Pivotal for Romney
Tuesday, September 25, 2012, Huffington Post and PredictWise
The downside of outside spending: Candidates are hard to shop for
Tuesday, September 25, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Introducing WiseQ Game – Election 2012
Monday, September 24, 2012, PredictWise
Democrats likely to retain Senate as four critical races shift in their favor
Monday, September 24, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Can Romney still win? Of course—just not the way things are going
Thursday, September 20, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Hidden video moves Obama 2.5% closer to reelection
Wednesday, September 19, 2012, PredictWise
Search data shows wildly divergent narratives on right and left
Tuesday, September 18, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Obama Reaches His Highest Likelihood of Reelection
Monday, September 17, 2012, Huffington Post and PredictWise
Romney’s chief opponent is not Obama. It’s time.
Wednesday, September 12, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Markets sour on both Romney and Obama speeches, but conventions still boost Democrats
Friday, September 7, 2012, Yahoo! Signal
Trust me, a primary reminder
Wednesday, September 5, 2012, PredictWise
Romney catches up in polls with convention bounce, but now it’s Obama’s turn
Wednesday, September 5, 2012, Yahoo! Signal

2012 – U.S. Election (August) (10 Articles):
Click for links »

2012 – U.S. Election (October 2011 to July 2012) (18 selected Articles):
Click for links »

2008 – U.S. Election (3 Articles):
Click for links »

Market Watcher’s Guide to Election Day with Justin Wolfers
Wall Street Journal Online, November 4, 2008.
– Election-eve assessment of the key political trends.
Market Manipulation Muddies Election Outlook with Justin Wolfers
Wall Street Journal Online, October 2, 2008.
– Assesses the extent to which prediction market prices may have been distorted by market manipulation.
Clinton’s Win Doesn’t Move Political Markets with Justin Wolfers
Wall Street Journal Online, April 23, 2008.
– Interprets the implications of the Democratic Pennsylvania primary. Our verdict: It’s a draw.