Academic Publications

Media Bias Detector: Designing and Implementing a Tool for Real-Time Selection and Framing Bias Analysis in News Coverage - With Jenny S. Wang, Samar Haider, Amir Tohidi, Annushka Gupta, Yuxuan Zhang, et al.. Chi. 2025. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Misunderstanding the harms of online misinformation - With Ceren Budak, Brendan Nyhan, Emily Thorson, Duncan J. Watts. Nature. 2024. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Framing in the Presence of Supporting Data: A Case Study in U.S. Economic News - With Alexandria Leto, Elliot Pickens, Coen D. Needell, Maria Leonor Pacheco. ACL-2024. 2024. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Warped Front Pages - With Elliot Pickens, Gideon Heltzer, Jenny Wang, Duncan J. Watts. Columbia Journalism Review. 2023. non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

Quantifying partisan news diets in Web and TV audiences - With Daniel Muise, Homa Hosseinmardi, Baird Howland, Markus Mobius, Duncan J. Watts. Science Advances. 2022. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

If a Tree Falls in the Forest: COVID-19, Media Choices, and Presidential Agenda Setting - With Masha Krupenkin, Kai Zhu, Dylan Walker. Journal of Quantitative Description. 2022. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Addendum to: Examining potential bias in large-scale censored data - With Jennifer Allen, Markus Mobius, Duncan J. Watts. Harvard Kennedy School Misinformation Review. 2022. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Measuring the news and its impact on democracy - With Duncan J. Watts, Markus Mobius. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS). 2021. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Examining the consumption of radical content on YouTube - With Homa Hosseinmardi, Amir Ghasemian, Aaron Clauset, Markus Mobius, Duncan J. Watts. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS). 2021. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Examining Potential Bias in Large-scale Censored Data - With Jennifer Allen, Markus Mobius, Duncan J. Watts. Harvard Kennedy School Misinformation Review. 2021. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Comparing Estimates of News Consumption from Survey and Passively collected Behavioral Data - With Tobias Konitzer, Jennifer Allen, Stephanie Eckman, Baird Howland, Markus Mobius, Duncan J. Watts. Public Opinion Quarterly (POQ). 2021. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Evaluating the fake news problem at the scale of the information ecosystem - With Jennifer Allen, Baird Howland, Markus Mobius, Duncan J. Watts. Science Advances. 2020. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Unique news over time - With Ling Dong. . 2019. Filed Link Cite this

Towards an automated clustering for online news events: A method proposal and data set for further development - With Marcel Wittich. . 2018. Filed Link Cite this

The Science of Fake News - With David Lazer, Matthew Baum, Yochai Benkler, Adam Bernisky, Kelly Greenhilll, et al.. Science. 2018. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

The minority report on the fake news crisis: (spoiler alert: its the real news) - With Duncan J. Watts. Understanding and Addressing the Disinformation Ecosystem. 2017. non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

Rebuilding legitimacy in a post-truth age - With Duncan J. Watts. Medium. 2017. non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

Dont blame the election on fake news. Blame it on the media - With Duncan J. Watts. Columbia Journalism Review. 2017. non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

Comparing Traditional and LLM-based Search for Consumer Choice: A Randomized Experiments - With Sofia Spatharioti, Daniel G. Goldstein, Jake M. Hofman. Chi. 2025. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Prevalence and prevention of large language model use in crowd work - With Veniamin Veselovsky, Manoel Ribeiro, Phillip Cozzolino, Andrew Gordon, Robert West. Communications of the ACM. 2024. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Designing Expressive and Liquid Financial Options Markets via Linear Programming and Automated Market Making - With Xintong Wang, David M. Pennock, Nikhil Devanur. ICAIF2024. 2024. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Early LLM-based Tools for Enterprise Information Workers Likely Provide Meaningful Boosts to Productivity - With Alexia Cambon, Brent Hecht, Bejamin Edelman, Donald Ngwe, Sonia Jaffe, et al.. Microsoft White Paper. 2023. non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

A Sports Analogy for Understanding Different Ways to Use AI - With Jake M. Hofman, Daniel G. Goldstein. Harvard Business Review. 2023. non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

Towards a Theory of Confidence in Market-Based Predictions - With Rupert Freeman, David M. Pennock, Daniel M. Reeves, Bo Waggoner. ISIPTA. 2021. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Log-time Prediction Markets for Interval Securities - With Miroslav Dudk, Xintong Wang, David M. Pennock. AAMAS. 2021. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Designing a Combinatorial Financial Options Market - With Xintong Wang, David M. Pennock, Nikhil Devanur, Biaoshuai Tao, Michael Wellman. Economics and Computation (EC). 2021. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Data quality of platforms and panels for online behavioral research - With Eyal Peer, Andrew Gordon, Zak Evernden, Ekaterina Damer. Behavior Research Methods. 2021. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Understanding market functionality and trading success - With James Schmitz. PlosOne. 2019. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Parallax and Tax - With Etan Green, Haksoo Lee. The Review of Economic Studies (Restud) R&R. 2019. non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

A Sharp Test of the Portability of Expertise - With Etan Green, Justin Rao. Management Science. 2019. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Manipulation in Conditional Decision Markets - With Florian Teschner, Henner Gimpel . Group Decision and Negotiation. 2017. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Trading strategies and market microstructure: evidence from a prediction market - With Rajiv Sethi. Journal of Prediction Markets. 2016. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Selection bias in documenting online conversations - With Ran He. . 2016. Filed Link Cite this

A comparison of forecasting methods: fundamentals, polling, prediction markets, and experts - With Deepak Pathak, Miroslav Dudik. Journal of Prediction Markets. 2015. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

The extent of price misalignment in prediction markets - With David M. Pennock. Algorithmic Finance. 2014. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Lay understanding of probability distributions - With Daniel G. Goldstein. Judgment and Decision Making. 2014. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Simplifying Market Access: A new confidence-based interface - With Florian Teschner. Journal of Prediction Markets. 2013. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Expectations: Point-Estimates, Probability Distributions, and Forecasts - With -. AMMA 2011. 2011. non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

A new way to think about confidence ranges - With Florian Teschner, Daniel G. Goldstein. . 2010. Filed Link Cite this

Market Manipulation Muddies Election Outlook - With Justin Wolfers. Wall Street Journal. 2008. non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

Do Partisans Make Different Investment Decisions When Their Party is in Power? - With Masha Krupenkin, Shawndra Hill. Political Behavior. 2024. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Anti-Immigrant Rhetoric and ICE Reporting Behavior: Evidence from a Large-Scale Study of Web Search Data - With Masha Krupenkin, Shawndra Hill. British Journal of Political Science. 2024. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

The cost of anti-Asian racism during the COVID-19 pandemic - With Justin Huang, Masha Krupenkin, Julia Lee Cunningham. Nature Human Behavior. 2023. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Combatting Gerrymandering with Social Choice: the Design of Multi-member Districts - With Nikhil Garg, Wes Gurnee, David Shmoys. Economics and Computation (EC). 2022. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Blocks as geographic discontinuities: The effect of polling place assignment on voting - With Sabina Tomkins, Keniel Yao, Johann Gaebler, Tobias Konitzer, Marc Meredith, Sharad Goel. Political Anaylisis. 2022. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

One Person, One Vote: Estimating the Prevalence of Double Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections - With Sharad Goel, Marc Meredith, Michael Morse, Houshmand Shirani-Mehr. American Political Science Review (APSR). 2020. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

External Validity of Differences in Hypothetical Horse-Race Polling - With Ling Dong. . 2020. Filed Link Cite this

President Trump stress disorder: partisanship, ethnicity, and expressive reporting of mental distress after the 2016 election - With Masha Krupenkin, Shawndra Hill, Elad Yom-Tov. Sage Open. 2019. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Using Big Data and Algorithms to Determine the Effect of Geographically Targeted Advertising on Vote Intention: Evidence From the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election - With Tobias Konitzer, Shawndra Hill, Kenneth Wilbur. Political Communications. 2018. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Economic Expectations, Voting, and Economic Decisions around Elections - With Guy Huberman, Tobias Konitzer, Masha Krupenkin, Shawndra Hill. AEA Proceedings. 2018. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Disentangling bias and variance in election polls - With Houshmand Shirani-Mehr, Sharad Goel, Andrew Gelman. Journal of the American Statistical Association (JASA). 2018. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Decoupling and contrasting turnout and sentiment in electoral change: Evidence from recent congressional elections - With Tobias Konitzer, Sharad Goel, Houshmand Shirani-Mehr. . 2018. non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

The Interaction of Prediction Markets and Polls - With Giorgio Ravalli. . 2017. Filed Link Cite this

Non-Representative Surveys: Modes, Dynamics, Party, and Likely Voter Space - With Sam Corbett-Davies, Tobias Konitzer. . 2017. non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

Issues Constraint - With Tobias Konitzer, Sharad Goel, Sam Corbett-Davies. . 2017. Filed Link Cite this

Do Campaign Ads Matter? Limitations of Advertisements in a Negative News Context - With Masha Krupenkin, Shawndra Hill. . 2017. Filed Link Cite this

Why Political Polling is not Dead a Plea for Non-Probability Polling, Algorithms, and Big Data - With Tobias Konitzer. Semantic Scholar. 2016. non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

The Mythical Swing Voter - With Andrew Gelman, Sharad Goel, Doug Rivers. Quarterly Journal of Political Science. 2016. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Online and Social Media Data As an Imperfect Continuous Panel Survey - With Fernando Diaz, Michael Gamon, Jake M. Hofman, Emre Kiciman. PlosOne. 2016. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Mobile as Survey Mode - With Tobias Konitzer, Stephie Eckman. Proceedings of the Survey Research Methods Section, ASA. 2016. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

High-Frequency Polling with Non-Representative Data - With Andrew Gelman, Sharad Goel, Wei Wang. Book Chapter. 2016. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Non-Representative Surveys: Fast, Cheap, and Mostly Accurate - With Sharad Goel, Adam Obeng. PlosOne R&R. 2015. non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

Forecasting elections with non-representative polls - With Wei Wang, Sharad Goel, Gelman. International Journal of Forecasting. 2015. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Combining forecasts for elections: Accurate, relevant, and timely - International Journal of Forecasting. 2015. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Xbox Polling and the Future of Election Prediction - Harvard Business Review. 2014. non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

Fundamental models for forecasting elections at the state level - With Patrick Hummel. Electoral Studies. 2014. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Are public opinion polls self-fulfilling prophecies? - With Neil Malhotra. Research and Politics. 2014. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

A combinatorial prediction market for the US elections - With Miroslav Dudik, Sebastien Lahaie, David M. Pennock. Economics and Computation (EC). 2013. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Forecasting Elections: Voter Intentions versus Expectations - With Justin Wolfers. NBER. 2011. non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

Debiased Aggregated Polls and Prediction Market Prices - Chance. 2010. non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and their Biases - Public Opinion Quarterly (POQ). 2009. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Vaccine advertising: preach to the converted or to the unaware? - With Masha Krupenkin, Elad Yom-Tov. Nature Digital Medicine. 2021. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Post Purchase Search Engine Marketing - With Qianyun Zhang, Shawndra Hill. The Web Conference 2018 (WWW). 2018. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this

Addressing Selection Bias in Event Studies with General-Purpose Social Media Panels - With Han Zhang, Shawndra Hill. Journal of Data and Information Quality. 2018. Peer Reviewed Publication Link Cite this