Academic Publications

Unpacking media bias in the growing divide between cable and network news - With Homa Hosseinmardi, Sam Wolken, Duncan J. Watts - Scientific Reports. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Media Bias Detector: Designing and Implementing a Tool for Real-Time Selection and Framing Bias Analysis in News Coverage - With Jenny S. Wang, Samar Haider, Amir Tohidi, Anushka Gupta, Yuxuan Zhang, et al. - Chi. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Framing in the Presence of Supporting Data: A Case Study in U.S. Economic News - With Alexandria Leto, Elliot Pickens, Coen D. Needell, Maria Leonor Pacheco - ACL-2024. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Misunderstanding the harms of online misinformation - With Ceren Budak, Brendan Nyhan, Emily Thorson, Duncan J. Watts - Nature. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Quantifying partisan news diets in Web and TV audiences - With Daniel Muise, Homa Hosseinmardi, Baird Howland, Markus Mobius, Duncan J. Watts - Science Advances. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

If a Tree Falls in the Forest: COVID-19, Media Choices, and Presidential Agenda Setting - With Masha Krupenkin, Kai Zhu, Dylan Walker - Journal of Quantitative Description. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Addendum to: Examining potential bias in large-scale censored data - With Jennifer Allen, Markus Mobius, Duncan J. Watts - Harvard Kennedy School Misinformation Review. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Examining the consumption of radical content on YouTube - With Homa Hosseinmardi, Amir Ghasemian, Aaron Clauset, Markus Mobius, Duncan J. Watts - Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS). . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Examining Potential Bias in Large-scale Censored Data - With Jennifer Allen, Markus Mobius, Duncan J. Watts - Harvard Kennedy School Misinformation Review. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Measuring the news and its impact on democracy - With Duncan J. Watts, Markus Mobius - Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS). . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Comparing Estimates of News Consumption from Survey and Passively collected Behavioral Data - With Tobias Konitzer, Jennifer Allen, Stephanie Eckman, Baird Howland, Markus Mobius, Duncan J. Watts - Public Opinion Quarterly (POQ). . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Evaluating the fake news problem at the scale of the information ecosystem - With Jennifer Allen, Baird Howland, Markus Mobius, Duncan J. Watts - Science Advances. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

The Science of Fake News - With David Lazer, Matthew Baum, Yochai Benkler, Adam Bernisky, Kelly Greenhilll, et al. - Science. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Warped Front Pages - With Elliot Pickens, Gideon Heltzer, Jenny Wang, Duncan J. Watts - Columbia Journalism Review. . non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

The minority report on the fake news crisis: (spoiler alert: it’s the real news) - With Duncan J. Watts - Understanding and Addressing the Disinformation Ecosystem. . non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

Don’t blame the election on fake news. Blame it on the media - With Duncan J. Watts - Columbia Journalism Review. . non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

Rebuilding legitimacy in a post-truth age - With Duncan J. Watts - Medium. . non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

Unique news over time - With Ling Dong - N/A. . Filed Link Cite this

Towards an automated clustering for online news events: A method proposal and data set for further development - With Marcel Wittich - N/A. . Filed Link Cite this

Effects of LLM Use and Note-Taking on Reading Comprehension and Memory: A Randomised Experiment in Secondary Schools - With Pia Kreijkes, Viktor Kewening, Martina Kuvalja, Mina Lee, Jake M. Hofman, et al. - Computers & Education. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Economists can help ensure the AI disruption brings society to the good place: discussion for “The Coasean Singularity? Demand, Supply, and Market Design with AI Agents” - NBER. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Successfully Navigating the Disruption of AI on Survey Research - With Trent D. Buskirk, Stephanie Eckman, D. Sunshine Hillygus, Frauker Kreuter, David Lazer - The Survey Statistician. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

The Agentic Economy - With Markus Mobius, Jake M. Hofman, Eleanor W. Dillon, Daniel G. Goldstein, Nicole Immorcilca, et al. - Communications of the ACM. . Peer-Reviewed Link

Math Education With Large Language Models: Peril or Promise? - With Harsh Kumar, Jake M. Hofman, Daniel G. Goldstein - AIED. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Comparing Traditional and LLM-based Search for Consumer Choice: A Randomized Experiments - With Sofia Spatharioti, Daniel G. Goldstein, Jake M. Hofman - Chi. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Designing Expressive and Liquid Financial Options Markets via Linear Programming and Automated Market Making - With Xintong Wang, David M. Pennock, Nikhil Devanur - ICAIF2024. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Prevalence and prevention of large language model use in crowd work - With Veniamin Veselovsky, Manoel Ribeiro, Phillip Cozzolino, Andrew Gordon, Robert West - Communications of the ACM. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Data quality of platforms and panels for online behavioral research - With Eyal Peer, Andrew Gordon, Zak Evernden, Ekaterina Damer - Behavior Research Methods. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Log-time Prediction Markets for Interval Securities - With Miroslav Dudík, Xintong Wang, David M. Pennock - AAMAS. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Towards a Theory of Confidence in Market-Based Predictions - With Rupert Freeman, David M. Pennock, Daniel M. Reeves, Bo Waggoner - ISIPTA. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Designing a Combinatorial Financial Options Market - With Xintong Wang, David M. Pennock, Nikhil Devanur, Biaoshuai Tao, Michael Wellman - Economics and Computation (EC). . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

A Sharp Test of the Portability of Expertise - With Etan Green, Justin Rao - Management Science. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Understanding market functionality and trading success - With James Schmitz - PlosOne. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Manipulation in Conditional Decision Markets - With Florian Teschner, Henner Gimpel - Group Decision and Negotiation. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Trading strategies and market microstructure: evidence from a prediction market - With Rajiv Sethi - Journal of Prediction Markets. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

A comparison of forecasting methods: fundamentals, polling, prediction markets, and experts - With Deepak Pathak, Miroslav Dudik - Journal of Prediction Markets. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

The extent of price misalignment in prediction markets - With David M. Pennock - Algorithmic Finance. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Lay understanding of probability distributions - With Daniel G. Goldstein - Judgment and Decision Making. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Simplifying Market Access: A new confidence-based interface - With Florian Teschner - Journal of Prediction Markets. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Early LLM-based Tools for Enterprise Information Workers Likely Provide Meaningful Boosts to Productivity - With Alexia Cambon, Brent Hecht, Bejamin Edelman, Donald Ngwe, Sonia Jaffe, et al. - Microsoft White Paper. . non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

A Sports Analogy for Understanding Different Ways to Use AI - With Jake M. Hofman, Daniel G. Goldstein - Harvard Business Review. . non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

Parallax and Tax - With Etan Green, Haksoo Lee - The Review of Economic Studies (Restud) R&R. . non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

Expectations: Point-Estimates, Probability Distributions, and Forecasts - With - - AMMA 2011. . non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

Market Manipulation Muddies Election Outlook - With Justin Wolfers - Wall Street Journal. . non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

Selection bias in documenting online conversations - With Ran He - N/A. . Filed Link Cite this

A new way to think about confidence ranges - With Florian Teschner, Daniel G. Goldstein - N/A. . Filed Link Cite this

Gun purchase interest as backlash to Black Lives Matter protests - With Masha Krupenkin, Elad Yom-Tov - Social Forces. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Do Partisans Make Different Investment Decisions When Their Party is in Power? - With Masha Krupenkin, Shawndra Hill - Political Behavior. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

The cost of anti-Asian racism during the COVID-19 pandemic - With Justin Huang, Masha Krupenkin, Julia Lee Cunningham - Nature Human Behavior. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Blocks as geographic discontinuities: The effect of polling place assignment on voting - With Sabina Tomkins, Keniel Yao, Johann Gaebler, Tobias Konitzer, Marc Meredith, Sharad Goel - Political Anaylisis. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Anti-Immigrant Rhetoric and ICE Reporting Behavior: Evidence from a Large-Scale Study of Web Search Data - With Masha Krupenkin, Shawndra Hill - British Journal of Political Science. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Combatting Gerrymandering with Social Choice: the Design of Multi-member Districts - With Nikhil Garg, Wes Gurnee, David Shmoys - Economics and Computation (EC). . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

One Person, One Vote: Estimating the Prevalence of Double Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections - With Sharad Goel, Marc Meredith, Michael Morse, Houshmand Shirani-Mehr - American Political Science Review (APSR). . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Using Big Data and Algorithms to Determine the Effect of Geographically Targeted Advertising on Vote Intention: Evidence From the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election - With Tobias Konitzer, Shawndra Hill, Kenneth Wilbur - Political Communications. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

President Trump stress disorder: partisanship, ethnicity, and expressive reporting of mental distress after the 2016 election - With Masha Krupenkin, Shawndra Hill, Elad Yom-Tov - Sage Open. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Economic Expectations, Voting, and Economic Decisions around Elections - With Guy Huberman, Tobias Konitzer, Masha Krupenkin, Shawndra Hill - AEA Proceedings. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Disentangling bias and variance in election polls - With Houshmand Shirani-Mehr, Sharad Goel, Andrew Gelman - Journal of the American Statistical Association (JASA). . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

High-Frequency Polling with Non-Representative Data - With Andrew Gelman, Sharad Goel, Wei Wang - Book Chapter. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

The Mythical Swing Voter - With Andrew Gelman, Sharad Goel, Doug Rivers - Quarterly Journal of Political Science. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Online and Social Media Data As an Imperfect Continuous Panel Survey - With Fernando Diaz, Michael Gamon, Jake M. Hofman, Emre Kiciman - PlosOne. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Mobile as Survey Mode - With Tobias Konitzer, Stephie Eckman - Proceedings of the Survey Research Methods Section, ASA. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Combining forecasts for elections: Accurate, relevant, and timely - International Journal of Forecasting. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Forecasting elections with non-representative polls - With Wei Wang, Sharad Goel, Gelman - International Journal of Forecasting. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Fundamental models for forecasting elections at the state level - With Patrick Hummel - Electoral Studies. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Are public opinion polls self-fulfilling prophecies? - With Neil Malhotra - Research and Politics. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

A combinatorial prediction market for the US elections - With Miroslav Dudik, Sebastien Lahaie, David M. Pennock - Economics and Computation (EC). . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and their Biases - Public Opinion Quarterly (POQ). . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Identity isn't everything -- how far do demographics take us towards self-identified party ID? - With Sabina Tomkins, Alex Liu, Alexander Thompson - arXiv. . non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

Decoupling and contrasting turnout and sentiment in electoral change: Evidence from recent congressional elections - With Tobias Konitzer, Sharad Goel, Houshmand Shirani-Mehr - N/A. . non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

Non-Representative Surveys: Modes, Dynamics, Party, and Likely Voter Space - With Sam Corbett-Davies, Tobias Konitzer - N/A. . non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

Why Political Polling is not Dead – a Plea for Non-Probability Polling, Algorithms, and Big Data - With Tobias Konitzer - Semantic Scholar. . non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

Non-Representative Surveys: Fast, Cheap, and Mostly Accurate - With Sharad Goel, Adam Obeng - PlosOne R&R. . non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

Xbox Polling and the Future of Election Prediction - Harvard Business Review. . non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

Forecasting Elections: Voter Intentions versus Expectations - With Justin Wolfers - NBER. . non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

Debiased Aggregated Polls and Prediction Market Prices - Chance. . non-Peer Reviewed Link Cite this

External Validity of Differences in Hypothetical Horse-Race Polling - With Ling Dong - N/A. . Filed Link Cite this

Issues Constraint - With Tobias Konitzer, Sharad Goel, Sam Corbett-Davies - N/A. . Filed Link Cite this

Do Campaign Ads Matter? Limitations of Advertisements in a Negative News Context - With Masha Krupenkin, Shawndra Hill - N/A. . Filed Link Cite this

The Interaction of Prediction Markets and Polls - With Giorgio Ravalli - N/A. . Filed Link Cite this

The Impact of Temporally Turning off TV Ad on Search: A Generalized Synthetic Control Estimator under Interference - With Jia Liu, Shawndra Hill - Journal of Marketing. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Search conversion journeys and the missed opportunity of associated keywords - With Elad Yom-Tov, Coen Needell - Frontiers. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Vaccine advertising: preach to the converted or to the unaware? - With Masha Krupenkin, Elad Yom-Tov - Nature Digital Medicine. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Addressing Selection Bias in Event Studies with General-Purpose Social Media Panels - With Han Zhang, Shawndra Hill - Journal of Data and Information Quality. . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this

Post Purchase Search Engine Marketing - With Qianyun Zhang, Shawndra Hill - The Web Conference 2018 (WWW). . Peer-Reviewed Link Cite this