The Agentic Economy
Explores how communication among AI agents could reorganize consumer markets, contrasting platform-controlled “walled gardens” with an open and interoperable “web of agents.”
Papers
Selected Recent Research
Recent work spanning artificial intelligence, markets, public opinion, survey research, and the changing media environment.
From Augmentation to Reconstruction: Guiding the AI Disruption to the Good Place
Introduces a three-stage framework—augmentation, automation, and reconstruction—and argues that AI’s greatest effects will emerge when organizations redesign entire workflows and markets around its capabilities.
Responsible AI Integration in Survey Research
Provides a practical framework for integrating AI into survey research while maintaining transparency, methodological rigor, human oversight, data quality, and public trust.
The Media Bias Detector: A Framework for Annotating and Analyzing the News at Scale
Introduces a scalable, human-in-the-loop framework that uses large language models to annotate news coverage and analyze patterns in topic selection, political lean, tone, and framing.
Unpacking Media Bias in the Growing Divide Between Cable and Network News
Analyzes more than 13 million television news segments, showing that cable channels have increasingly diverged in what they cover and how they discuss it, while broadcast networks continue to provide a more consistent shared information environment.
Misunderstanding the Harms of Online Misinformation
Examines the gap between public narratives and empirical evidence about online misinformation, showing that exposure is often concentrated among a relatively small group and calling for better measurement, platform transparency, and research access.
Click any column header to sort. Use the filter boxes to search. You can also find my articles on my Google Scholar profile.
| Year ▼ | Title | Co-Authors | Venue | Category | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Could AI make legalese comprehensible to the public? | Mina Lee, Jake M. Hofman, Daniel G. Goldstein | ICAIL | Behavioral | |
| 2026 | AAPOR Task Force on Responsible AI Integration in Survey Research | Jenny Marlar, Ashley Amaya, Soubhik Barari, Trent Buskirk, Curtiss Cobb, et al. | AAPOR | Behavioral | |
| 2026 | A reporting checklist for large language models in behavioural science | Stefan Feuerriegel, Christopher Barrie, M.J. Crockett, Laura K. Globing, Killian L. McLoughlin, et al. | Nature Human Behavior | Behavioral | |
| 2026 | Facilitating Meetings with LLMs: An Experimental Study of Group Decision Making | Mohammed Alsobay, Jake M. Hofman, Daniel G. Goldstein | CSCW | Behavioral | |
| 2026 | Questioning the empirical evidence that AI survey contamination is real and substantial | Soubhik Barari, Trent D. Buskirk, Andrew Gordon, D. Sunshine Hillygus | OSF | Behavioral | |
| 2026 | From Augmentation to Reconstruction: Guiding the AI Disruption to the Good Place | Jake M. Hofman, Markus Mobius, Brendan Lucier, Eleanor Dillon, Daniel G. Goldstein, et al. | arXiv | Behavioral | |
| 2026 | Combating Gerrymandering with Ranked Choice Voting: An Experimental Analysis of Multimember Districts in the United States | Nikhil Garg, Wes Gurnee, David Shmoys | Operations Research | Political Science | |
| 2026 | The Evolution of Digital Search: From Blue Links to Delegated Decision-Making | Nicole Immorlica, Brendan Lucier, Markus Mobius, Aleksandrs Slivkins | ACM AI 2026 | Behavioral | |
| 2026 | Comment on Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, Prediction Markets; Public Interest Determinations | N/A | CFTC | Behavioral | |
| 2026 | The Media Bias Detector: A Framework for Annotating and Analyzing the News at Scale | Samar Haider, Amir Tohidi, Jenny S. Wang, Timothy Dörr, Chris Callison-Burch, Duncan J. Watts | Science Advances | Communication | |
| 2025 | Identity isn't everything -- how far do demographics take us towards self-identified party ID? | Sabina Tomkins, Alex Liu, Alexander Thompson | arXiv | Political Science | |
| 2025 | Media Bias Detector: Designing and Implementing a Tool for Real-Time Selection and Framing Bias Analysis in News Coverage | Jenny S. Wang, Samar Haider, Amir Tohidi, Anushka Gupta, Yuxuan Zhang, et al. | Chi | Communication | |
| 2025 | Effects of LLM-based Search on Decision Making: Speed, Accuracy, and Overreliance | Sofia Spatharioti, Daniel G. Goldstein, Jake M. Hofman | Chi | Behavioral | |
| 2025 | Search conversion journeys and the missed opportunity of associated keywords | Elad Yom-Tov, Coen Needell | Frontiers | Marketing | |
| 2025 | Math Education With Large Language Models: Peril or Promise? | Harsh Kumar, Jake M. Hofman, Daniel G. Goldstein | AIED | Behavioral | |
| 2025 | Dynamic Effects of TV Ad Suspension on Keyword Search: Evidence from the U.S. Telecom Industry | Jia Liu, Shawndra Hill | Journal of Marketing | Marketing | |
| 2025 | Unpacking media bias in the growing divide between cable and network news | Homa Hosseinmardi, Sam Wolken, Duncan J. Watts | Scientific Reports | Communication | |
| 2025 | Gun purchase interest as backlash to Black Lives Matter protests | Masha Krupenkin, Elad Yom-Tov | Social Forces | Political Science | |
| 2025 | The Agentic Economy | Markus Mobius, Jake M. Hofman, Eleanor W. Dillon, Daniel G. Goldstein, Nicole Immorcilca, et al. | Communications of the ACM | Behavioral | |
| 2025 | Successfully Navigating the Disruption of AI on Survey Research | Trent D. Buskirk, Stephanie Eckman, D. Sunshine Hillygus, Frauker Kreuter, David Lazer | The Survey Statistician | Behavioral | |
| 2025 | Economists can help ensure the AI disruption brings society to the good place: discussion for “The Coasean Singularity? Demand, Supply, and Market Design with AI Agents” | N/A | NBER | Behavioral | |
| 2025 | Effects of LLM Use and Note-Taking on Reading Comprehension and Memory: A Randomised Experiment in Secondary Schools | Pia Kreijkes, Viktor Kewening, Martina Kuvalja, Mina Lee, Jake M. Hofman, et al. | Computers & Education | Behavioral | |
| 2025 | Magentic Marketplace: An Open-Source Environment for Studying Agentic Markets | Gagan Bansal, Wenyuue Hua, Zchary Huang, Adam Fourney, Amanda Swearngin, et al. | arXiv | Behavioral | |
| 2024 | Surveying Real-Time News Absorption and Impact | Hope Schroeder, Jenny Wang | N/A | Political Science | |
| 2024 | Opportunities and risks of LLMs in survey research | James Brand, Hope Schroeder, Jenny Wang | SSRN | Behavioral | |
| 2024 | A Taxonomy for Understanding and Identifying Uncertainty in AI-Generated Responses | Snehal Prabhudesai, Daniel G. Goldstein, Jake M. Hofman | SSRN | Behavioral | |
| 2024 | Anti-Immigrant Rhetoric and ICE Reporting Behavior: Evidence from a Large-Scale Study of Web Search Data | Masha Krupenkin, Shawndra Hill | British Journal of Political Science | Political Science | |
| 2024 | Do Partisans Make Different Investment Decisions When Their Party is in Power? | Masha Krupenkin, Shawndra Hill | Political Behavior | Political Science | |
| 2024 | Misunderstanding the harms of online misinformation | Ceren Budak, Brendan Nyhan, Emily Thorson, Duncan J. Watts | Nature | Communication | |
| 2024 | Framing in the Presence of Supporting Data: A Case Study in U.S. Economic News | Alexandria Leto, Elliot Pickens, Coen D. Needell, Maria Leonor Pacheco | ACL-2024 | Communication | |
| 2024 | Prevalence and prevention of large language model use in crowd work | Veniamin Veselovsky, Manoel Ribeiro, Phillip Cozzolino, Andrew Gordon, Robert West | Communications of the ACM | Behavioral | |
| 2024 | Designing Expressive and Liquid Financial Options Markets via Linear Programming and Automated Market Making | Xintong Wang, David M. Pennock, Nikhil Devanur | ICAIF2024 | Behavioral | |
| 2023 | Warped Front Pages | Elliot Pickens, Gideon Heltzer, Jenny Wang, Duncan J. Watts | Columbia Journalism Review | Communication | |
| 2023 | A Sports Analogy for Understanding Different Ways to Use AI | Jake M. Hofman, Daniel G. Goldstein | Harvard Business Review | Behavioral | |
| 2023 | Early LLM-based Tools for Enterprise Information Workers Likely Provide Meaningful Boosts to Productivity | Alexia Cambon, Brent Hecht, Bejamin Edelman, Donald Ngwe, Sonia Jaffe, et al. | Microsoft White Paper | Behavioral | |
| 2023 | The cost of anti-Asian racism during the COVID-19 pandemic | Justin Huang, Masha Krupenkin, Julia Lee Cunningham | Nature Human Behavior | Political Science | |
| 2022 | Combatting Gerrymandering with Social Choice: the Design of Multi-member Districts | Nikhil Garg, Wes Gurnee, David Shmoys | Economics and Computation (EC) and Operations Research | Political Science | |
| 2022 | Blocks as geographic discontinuities: The effect of polling place assignment on voting | Sabina Tomkins, Keniel Yao, Johann Gaebler, Tobias Konitzer, Marc Meredith, Sharad Goel | Political Anaylisis | Political Science | |
| 2022 | Addendum to: Examining potential bias in large-scale censored data | Jennifer Allen, Markus Mobius, Duncan J. Watts | Harvard Kennedy School Misinformation Review | Communication | |
| 2022 | If a Tree Falls in the Forest: COVID-19, Media Choices, and Presidential Agenda Setting | Masha Krupenkin, Kai Zhu, Dylan Walker | Journal of Quantitative Description | Communication | |
| 2022 | Quantifying partisan news diets in Web and TV audiences | Daniel Muise, Homa Hosseinmardi, Baird Howland, Markus Mobius, Duncan J. Watts | Science Advances | Communication | |
| 2021 | Comparing Estimates of News Consumption from Survey and Passively collected Behavioral Data | Tobias Konitzer, Jennifer Allen, Stephanie Eckman, Baird Howland, Markus Mobius, Duncan J. Watts | Public Opinion Quarterly (POQ) | Communication | |
| 2021 | Measuring the news and its impact on democracy | Duncan J. Watts, Markus Mobius | Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS) | Communication | |
| 2021 | Examining Potential Bias in Large-scale Censored Data | Jennifer Allen, Markus Mobius, Duncan J. Watts | Harvard Kennedy School Misinformation Review | Communication | |
| 2021 | Examining the consumption of radical content on YouTube | Homa Hosseinmardi, Amir Ghasemian, Aaron Clauset, Markus Mobius, Duncan J. Watts | Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS) | Communication | |
| 2021 | Vaccine advertising: preach to the converted or to the unaware? | Masha Krupenkin, Elad Yom-Tov | Nature Digital Medicine | Marketing | |
| 2021 | Designing a Combinatorial Financial Options Market | Xintong Wang, David M. Pennock, Nikhil Devanur, Biaoshuai Tao, Michael Wellman | Economics and Computation (EC) | Behavioral | |
| 2021 | Towards a Theory of Confidence in Market-Based Predictions | Rupert Freeman, David M. Pennock, Daniel M. Reeves, Bo Waggoner | ISIPTA | Behavioral | |
| 2021 | Log-time Prediction Markets for Interval Securities | Miroslav Dudík, Xintong Wang, David M. Pennock | AAMAS | Behavioral | |
| 2021 | Data quality of platforms and panels for online behavioral research | Eyal Peer, Andrew Gordon, Zak Evernden, Ekaterina Damer | Behavior Research Methods | Behavioral | |
| 2020 | External Validity of Differences in Hypothetical Horse-Race Polling | Ling Dong | N/A | Political Science | |
| 2020 | One Person, One Vote: Estimating the Prevalence of Double Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections | Sharad Goel, Marc Meredith, Michael Morse, Houshmand Shirani-Mehr | American Political Science Review (APSR) | Political Science | |
| 2020 | Evaluating the fake news problem at the scale of the information ecosystem | Jennifer Allen, Baird Howland, Markus Mobius, Duncan J. Watts | Science Advances | Communication | |
| 2019 | Unique news over time | Ling Dong | N/A | Communication | |
| 2019 | Parallax and Tax | Etan Green, Haksoo Lee | The Review of Economic Studies (Restud) R&R | Behavioral | |
| 2019 | President Trump stress disorder: partisanship, ethnicity, and expressive reporting of mental distress after the 2016 election | Masha Krupenkin, Shawndra Hill, Elad Yom-Tov | Sage Open | Political Science | |
| 2019 | Understanding market functionality and trading success | James Schmitz | PlosOne | Behavioral | |
| 2019 | A Sharp Test of the Portability of Expertise | Etan Green, Justin Rao | Management Science | Behavioral | |
| 2018 | Towards an automated clustering for online news events: A method proposal and data set for further development | Marcel Wittich | N/A | Communication | |
| 2018 | Decoupling and contrasting turnout and sentiment in electoral change: Evidence from recent congressional elections | Tobias Konitzer, Sharad Goel, Houshmand Shirani-Mehr | Political Science | ||
| 2018 | Disentangling bias and variance in election polls | Houshmand Shirani-Mehr, Sharad Goel, Andrew Gelman | Journal of the American Statistical Association (JASA) | Political Science | |
| 2018 | Economic Expectations, Voting, and Economic Decisions around Elections | Guy Huberman, Tobias Konitzer, Masha Krupenkin, Shawndra Hill | AEA Proceedings | Political Science | |
| 2018 | The Science of Fake News | David Lazer, Matthew Baum, Yochai Benkler, Adam Bernisky, Kelly Greenhilll, et al. | Science | Communication | |
| 2018 | Post Purchase Search Engine Marketing | Qianyun Zhang, Shawndra Hill | The Web Conference 2018 (WWW) | Marketing | |
| 2018 | Addressing Selection Bias in Event Studies with General-Purpose Social Media Panels | Han Zhang, Shawndra Hill | Journal of Data and Information Quality | Marketing | |
| 2018 | Using Big Data and Algorithms to Determine the Effect of Geographically Targeted Advertising on Vote Intention: Evidence From the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election | Tobias Konitzer, Shawndra Hill, Kenneth Wilbur | Political Communications | Political Science | |
| 2017 | The Interaction of Prediction Markets and Polls | Giorgio Ravalli | N/A | Political Science | |
| 2017 | Do Campaign Ads Matter? Limitations of Advertisements in a Negative News Context | Masha Krupenkin, Shawndra Hill | N/A | Political Science | |
| 2017 | Issues Constraint | Tobias Konitzer, Sharad Goel, Sam Corbett-Davies | N/A | Political Science | |
| 2017 | Non-Representative Surveys: Modes, Dynamics, Party, and Likely Voter Space | Sam Corbett-Davies, Tobias Konitzer | Semantic Scholar | Political Science | |
| 2017 | Rebuilding legitimacy in a post-truth age | Duncan J. Watts | Medium | Communication | |
| 2017 | Don’t blame the election on fake news. Blame it on the media | Duncan J. Watts | Columbia Journalism Review | Communication | |
| 2017 | The minority report on the fake news crisis: (spoiler alert: it’s the real news) | Duncan J. Watts | Understanding and Addressing the Disinformation Ecosystem | Communication | |
| 2017 | Manipulation in Conditional Decision Markets | Florian Teschner, Henner Gimpel | Group Decision and Negotiation | Behavioral | |
| 2016 | Selection bias in documenting online conversations | Ran He | Working Paper | Behavioral | |
| 2016 | Why Political Polling is not Dead – a Plea for Non-Probability Polling, Algorithms, and Big Data | Tobias Konitzer | Semantic Scholar | Political Science | |
| 2016 | Mobile as Survey Mode | Tobias Konitzer, Stephie Eckman | Proceedings of the Survey Research Methods Section, ASA | Political Science | |
| 2016 | Online and Social Media Data As an Imperfect Continuous Panel Survey | Fernando Diaz, Michael Gamon, Jake M. Hofman, Emre Kiciman | PlosOne | Political Science | |
| 2016 | The Mythical Swing Voter | Andrew Gelman, Sharad Goel, Doug Rivers | Quarterly Journal of Political Science | Political Science | |
| 2016 | Trading strategies and market microstructure: evidence from a prediction market | Rajiv Sethi | Journal of Prediction Markets | Behavioral | |
| 2016 | High-Frequency Polling with Non-Representative Data | Andrew Gelman, Sharad Goel, Wei Wang | Book Chapter | Political Science | |
| 2015 | Non-Representative Surveys: Fast, Cheap, and Mostly Accurate | Sharad Goel, Adam Obeng | PlosOne R&R | Political Science | |
| 2015 | Forecasting elections with non-representative polls | Wei Wang, Sharad Goel, Gelman | International Journal of Forecasting | Political Science | |
| 2015 | Combining forecasts for elections: Accurate, relevant, and timely | N/A | International Journal of Forecasting | Political Science | |
| 2015 | A comparison of forecasting methods: fundamentals, polling, prediction markets, and experts | Deepak Pathak, Miroslav Dudik | Journal of Prediction Markets | Behavioral | |
| 2014 | Xbox Polling and the Future of Election Prediction | N/A | Harvard Business Review | Political Science | |
| 2014 | Are public opinion polls self-fulfilling prophecies? | Neil Malhotra | Research and Politics | Political Science | |
| 2014 | Fundamental models for forecasting elections at the state level | Patrick Hummel | Electoral Studies | Political Science | |
| 2014 | Lay understanding of probability distributions | Daniel G. Goldstein | Judgment and Decision Making | Behavioral | |
| 2014 | The extent of price misalignment in prediction markets | David M. Pennock | Algorithmic Finance | Behavioral | |
| 2013 | Simplifying Market Access: A new confidence-based interface | Florian Teschner | Journal of Prediction Markets | Behavioral | |
| 2013 | A combinatorial prediction market for the US elections | Miroslav Dudik, Sebastien Lahaie, David M. Pennock | Economics and Computation (EC) | Political Science | |
| 2011 | Expectations: Point-Estimates, Probability Distributions, and Forecasts | N/A | AMMA 2011 | Behavioral | |
| 2011 | Forecasting Elections: Voter Intentions versus Expectations | Justin Wolfers | NBER | Political Science | |
| 2010 | A new way to think about confidence ranges | Florian Teschner, Daniel G. Goldstein | N/A | Behavioral | |
| 2010 | Debiased Aggregated Polls and Prediction Market Prices | N/A | Chance | Political Science | |
| 2009 | Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and their Biases | N/A | Public Opinion Quarterly (POQ) | Political Science | |
| 2008 | Market Manipulation Muddies Election Outlook | Justin Wolfers | Wall Street Journal | Behavioral |